Thursday, January 20, 2022

Long Term Wedge Has Clearly Broken Down

On the ES 3-day chart, below, the lower boundary of the long term wedge has clearly broken down.


Note that not all of today's futures prices are shown as of this writing futures are below 4,440. That's quite a switch from 4,808 in just a couple of weeks. Keep your eyes on the length of this down wave as it might become longer than the first Intermediate (X) wave.

I'm showing the alternate count as a schematic below prices. As I noted in the Sunday January 2, update, there are issues with the count that make it the alternate at this time.

I will be interested to see if the market can make a full 1.618 x 1 wave down.

Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe

26 comments:

  1. Here's my earlier post that never made it through. This gave rise to the comment on ((2))((4)) TL being reached -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/s2ax0d1oh1iparq/cfd430.PNG/file

    Here's the update after the close - nice follow through for sure

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/wf5li4q7c5cd5bp/Update430.PNG/file

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  2. TJ are B waves fully retraced? Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Often but not always. Clearly, they are not in 1) a common running triangle, or 2) a somewhat more rare running flat.

      TJ

      Delete
  3. The Triangle since Thanksgiving is out. The running triangle since the beginning of September has a .786 retrace for the d leg at some horizontal support.

    https://imgur.com/Fhu4yry

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  4. for a bullish ES alt count, and assuming selling doesn't continue unabated, we may have just completed an ending diagonal from the highs with an underthrow

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    Replies
    1. Not likely .. as with 140 candles on the ES hourly chart, the last wave has a much. much lower Elliott Wave Oscillator, and not a divergence as is typically seen in an ending diagonal.

      TJ

      Delete
  5. YM (4hr) - getting close

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/5up461qatpb4udc/YM3PDh.PNG/file

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  6. RTY (dly) - Another completion

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/qoc529v04v4zri6/RTY3PDh%25282%2529.PNG/file

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  7. BTC has just hit its 3PDh fully retrace level. Target is 23,544.96.

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  8. In the overnight Dow (YM) futures .. a diagonal upward was just invalidated. Refer to Wed Jan 5 post, and alternate red count, below prices.

    TJ

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  9. ES 4-Hr: for purposes of illustration, I want to know if a 1.618 wave 3 can be made or not.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/V4mtcYNQ/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Fwiw, that's the area where both the lower weekly BB and weekly 50 ma are. Certainly seems like that's a likely target. Thank you!

      Delete
  10. BTC (2day) - update

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/d25hlevt3m1l5tn/BTCfullretrace.PNG/file

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  11. In the zone here for the d leg on the daily if it can bounce.

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  12. Good video from Stock Charts on youtube with Martin Pring. I'm able to follow along except USB us 30 y treasury bond. How can I pull that up in tradingview or think or swim?
    https://youtu.be/75rD8zUV784

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  13. SPX (hrly) - exp. flat scenario update

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/9jytz6mziv7fbag/CashSPX.PNG/file

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The above assumed (iii) peak in Sept. Alternate scenario below -

      https://www.mediafire.com/view/3pdr1ghmpp1x4ux/Alternate.PNG/file

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    2. Missed changing the ((A)) and ((B)) references to a and b on 2nd chart. Oops.

      Delete
  14. https://schrts.co/YZBstfev

    SPX - one more gap to fill down around 1.618% area. It’s looking likely we get 4 closes below BB’s. VIX is showing positive divergence from early December.

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  15. BTC 2 hour look at chart from yesterday rejection at the top rail how long does this channel hold price?https://www.tradingview.com/x/bJSaZvvw/

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  16. SPX opex cycle is this time different?
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/H4ArD4cb/

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  17. SPXcfd - daily pivot for today above, around 4505.xx

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  18. If you have forgotten what an impulse looks like lately, take a look at soybeans since 11/9.

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  19. Looks like a 1m contracting diagonal of ES LOD. Has not fully retraces in the time it took to build, that would suggest leading. We shall see.

    Have a great weekend all.

    ReplyDelete