If we use 45-minute bars on the SPY cash chart to get 120 - 140 candles, we get a 'reasonable' fourth wave location and approximate 38.2% retrace.
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| SPY Cash - 45 Minutes - Possible 4 |
It's very possible wave 4 is a failed double-combination ((w))-((x))-((y)) wave. If so, such a failure would typically be bearish. It is still possible for the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) to come closer to the zero line.
The best alternate I see would be that only minute ((iv)) of Minor 4 ended at today's high. I would put a 'wave-counting-stop' above today's high, and monitor the overnight to see how much of the latest downward wave is retraced in the overnight.
There could still be some news developments (Russia, earnings?) that makes an even more extensive fourth wave (either in price or time), but it should be clear that green volume faded during the session, while red volume increased at the end of the day. So don't let emotions get in the way of good, sound analysis. Remember...only the market is correct.
Have a good start to your evening,
TraderJoe
Did you notice that the sharp bounce yesterday retraced about 50% of the prior leg? Could it have been (ii) up of a larger 3rd wave? if so, iii of 3 is on-deck now. Sketch of what I mean.
ReplyDeleteNot likely. Your claimed smaller degree ii is larger than your claimed larger degree 2. That would be a violation of degree definitions.
DeleteTJ
REMX (2day) - interesting chart -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/94caiooxwh0a1lk/InterestingREMX.PNG/file
GC (Gold Futures) - 30-min: have broken down under some parallel trend lines from that 1,855 level to now about 1,832. Worth watching.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Could be wrong, but I was showing the last move up coming out of a triangle. Reached the 1.00 x length of (A), and then turned. Has now moved below my (E).
Delete(fwiw)
Has now moved below my (A).
DeleteSPY 45-min: per yesterday's chart, the ES in the over-night hit the 'wave-counting-stop' for the failure fourth wave, and moved higher, as we said could happen. This morning SPY 45-min is still within range of a 4th wave, per the chart below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/O1vS15n7/
Nothing to the downside happens until/unless the market has the power to fill the gap. From a wave 4 perspective, the 38% and 50% retracements on the third wave are shown, with the 50% a practical 'upper limit' to a fourth wave (not a 'rule').
The EWO has moved back into 4th wave territory at the open.
As an alternate, with the FED meeting today, IFF prices should explode higher it might leave an expanding diagonal as the alternate. That remain far in the future, and is only 'food for thought' at this point.
TJ
daily vix back inside the upper bb.
ReplyDeleteSPY (dly/hrly) Two perspectives -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/nfqhg1k6oh5ql5c/SPY160.PNG/file
Reminder: FED FOMC policy statement at the top of the hour, to be followed by a Press Conference, as far as I can tell.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY has moved above the acceleration channel and tagged the btm of base channel. These would suggest we're in w4.
ReplyDeleteDJIA .. cash gap up has been filled lower.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY - hrly, 90% retrace for poss flat at 423.10.
ReplyDeleteGold 2hr, could be wrong, but here's what (I think) I'm seeing -
https://www.mediafire.com/view/caz7s2e8qzfktzb/Gold2hr.PNG/file
A couple of notes -
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JLhpMkoo/
SPY 1-min:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/G3DI4Zaj/
The 1-min has 'almost' a 2.618 wave. An impulse down is yet to prove itself. But it certainly could.
TJ
Hello ET,
DeleteIn 1 min chart, wave (1) of ((3)) is longer than wave ((1)). This is not a degree violation ?
Thanks.
..because of the very long retrace bar at 14:43, I'm not sure where wave ((2)) ended. The ALT has to be that that is wave ((3)). You can be correct. There aren't 140 candles and in the heat of battle, I'm going by the EWO.
DeleteTJ
DJI - Bearish butterfly update- (note weekly pivot was hit, not so with SPY).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ekxe5b5f4fx00o5/DJIButterfly.PNG/file
NDX (dly) update -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/sasvw1ry6tamzkr/NDXchannel%252B.PNG/file
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ