After yesterday's outside key reversal day in the DJIA, markets lost a few more points by the close today. This appears to be simple consolidation in a likely wave four. Examination of the ES hourly chart shows an initial stab at a 0.382 retracement was made early in the morning. Then, there was a lower low (which might be the 'b' wave of a flat fourth wave), followed by a more earnest & successful attempt to attack the 0.382 retracement level. Below is the ES hourly chart.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Downward Channel |
The down wave at (iii) is 2.618 x wave (i). This is pretty rare except inside of diagonals (which I think we are in) and triangles. If the up wave (iv) is complete as shown, then it can count as w-x-y to (iv). If wave (iv) wants to extend a bit to try to press in to the 0.50 retracement level, then it can count as a potential a-3, b-3 and contracting diagonal c-5.
IFF a new low occurs, then it is likely we have a minute ((a)) wave down. Let's see how it goes.
Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
An aside - Nikkei - Gld (2day) - Seemingly similar [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/w4c5uzdh7kbp7ow/Nikkei-Gld.PNG/file
👍 thanks
ReplyDeleteAbove what timeframe is it better to use the PPO instead of the EWO? Can the 8-fold path still be followed when using the PPO on higher timeframes? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteI must not let people get confused. You pick the time-frame on the EWO that provides 120 - 160 candles 'for the wave of interest'. It generally works up to the weekly chart. Beyond a year-or-two, though, there is too much FED policy intervening with either too many interest rate changes or too much inflation to make a linear tool worthwhile.
DeleteThen, it is better to change to percentage (PPO) tools or log based charts/tools.
TJ
BTC - has now exceeded the early Dec low.
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: the Dow already has a lower low. Watch to see if the ES exceeds the 8 AM bar low today (payroll report), and then 10 am bar low from yesterday.
ReplyDeleteIFF that's the case, then the count for wave (iv) can be w-x-triangle y: very complex.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pQ6dn1H2/
TJ
..payroll low exceeded lower.
DeleteTJ
10 am bar low from yesterday exceeded lower; can be counted as five-waves-down.
DeleteTJ
https://schrts.co/JNqJpDnk
ReplyDeleteTNX - appears to be breaking out. Resistance now at 1.97% - 2.03%
ES 1-Hr: here is an hourly chart update showing the lower low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bDbVsMZS/
TJ
Dow is tracking BTC If so the market will soon enter a 3rd wave down. Today? or Monday IMHO
ReplyDelete$SOXX looks more like it's starting it's 3 of 5 of wave 3 here. Possible also on the major indexes? https://invst.ly/x1-bt Sorry for the sloppy chart
ReplyDeletePotential ending diagonal in SPY
ReplyDeleteWill wave 2 finish today? MA mastercard
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/zf1tDY62/Screenshot-5.png
SPY 30 - thoughts (click to sharpen)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/y83xzgv6jj8oy5m/SPY_maybe.PNG/file
..nope .. your claimed smaller degree ((B)) wave is longer in price and time than your claimed larger degree ((1)) wave. And the smaller degree (A), up, is larger in price than the larger degree ((2)) up. As far, as I can tell, only the triangle at the lows resolves the issue.
DeleteTJ
So NO subwave within a larger 5 wave move can be > the smallest higher degree wave in the same direction? Is that a proper way to view it?
DeleteThanks
..not quite, but in many ways yes. To explain it all would take a book; the extended wave can get larger if it is composed of smaller degree sub-waves, triangles can make up for seeming initial degree violations because ultimately they are measured to their 'e' waves. But, there is a lot more than that.
DeleteTJ
SPX 5-min: this is all I have from the low so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fL5dmCO6/
A truncation is allowed as it would be v of (v), not (v).
TJ
On the 1 hr chart for this post, [not seeing the sub waves within your (iv)], is it possible there's a violation with the length of (ii)?
ReplyDeleteno, because of the triangle which I explained in the 10:36 comment, and afterwords.
DeleteTJ
SPX 5-min: assuming this example holds (no guarantee it will), can you see how the second micro-((1)), up, could become larger than the first micro-((1)), up, yet the second micro-((1)) remains smaller than the larger degree i/w. Yet the two micro-'ones' are of the 'same degree' just different sizes. This is how a third wave potentially becomes longer than the first.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4Dtln1mh/
TJ
NDX (wkly) - items of note -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/x3nnxizhb6vg6ta/NDXw.PNG/file
Correction - delete #6. Misread candle price info
Deletehttps://schrts.co/BxXwHQwS
ReplyDeleteQQQ - I was thinking we would get a bounce around the 150 sma after the flat finished. Thoughts? I think the QQQ’s are going to be volatile this year with rates going higher.
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ