Today we counted the ES futures as having 'three-waves-up' from the recent January low, making it back to the vicinity of the 18-day SMA, the 'line-in-the-sand', after tagging the lower daily Bollinger Band. The daily chart is below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Back to 18-day SMA in Three Waves 'So Far' |
It is too early to conclude anything. If the market can add a fourth and fifth wave up, an impulse would likely result. The daily slow stochastic, which was embedded - but lost its embedded status - has worked off the over-bought condition and is currently neutral.
The upward count remains an overlapping contract diagonal (that we have shown the basic form of in earlier posts. See this LINK.) which can easily still play out. The measurements remain correct for such a count. The only downward count I can see would be some sort of diagonal because from the all-time-high there is three-waves-down and now three-waves up. This count might apply if prices find stiff resistance at this level.
A downward count might morph into a ((i)) down, and flat ((ii)), up, but only if the all-time-high is not exceeded with five-waves-up. However, this is a lower probability count at the moment as trading over the 18-day SMA might turn the algorithms to shoot for the upper daily Bollinger Band.
So, in essence, price is in no-man's land from a wave-counting perspective, and clarity is needed on the count. It is hard to defend any particular count in such a situation except to say that some major market tops are often accompanied by a contracting diagonal, or a contracting diagonal with a failed fifth wave. In this case such a diagonal would have been literally months in the making.
For the local count of three-waves-up, see the comments for the prior post at the end of the cash session.
So, with that in mind, we take it wave-by-wave. Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
SPXcfd (hrly) - heading into the evening -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/zpva8ij9yzpvkv3/evening.PNG/file
We have reached the top of the yellow shaded area, both pivots hit, along
Deletewith 200ma.
An aside - Backlogs vs Interest Rates - interesting
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/2gdk4uv0d46emu2/Backlogs-Rates.PNG/file
Thanks TJ,
ReplyDeleteWith a knowledge of interest hike to control inflation should generally gets priced in before actual hike.
18 sma is hanging on for quite a while.
Earlier rate hike priced in Jan. 4-10. First mentioned in media a week ago.
DeleteGold (4hr) - current observations (click to sharpen)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/uj55iu9edh4lshe/4hrgold.PNG/file
14 week positive RSI reversal on QQQ. Possible target 418. FVE still neutral.
ReplyDeleteBTC (4hr) - current observations
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/d135vijtanabc66/4hrBTC.PNG/file
RSI has now reached the 60 level from the positive RD hidden. Price just below the high/low TL parallel.
DeleteGood morning all. ES 60-min: likely has a wedge that counts as five up with an xi.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zHclBQ8c/
TJ
..and that could be a better (a) wave, up.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7mdzo1qR/
TJ
If we now have (a) up, in the SPY, that can allow a max target calculation as follows for wave minute ((v)). There's not much point in doing the target calculation until the five-up is confirmed. It seems to be.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/erzlt8NJ/
So, SPY can reach a max of 487.64 and remain in a diagonal. It would likely be lower than that (like 62% or 78%) to maintain the 'right look'.
A similar calculation should be done on the ES.
And, we also know where wave minute ((v)) either invalidates without a new high or where a wave ((v)) failure is indicated.
No other method of analysis except Elliott Wave provides such specificity.
TJ
so circle (1) NOT an impulse in this count,
Deletethe wave has all the characteristics of the 8 fold path, including a 2.618 wave and proper EWO characteristics based on my understanding.
Does it fit the criteria in your opinion?
joe, "where" you choose to start conting that wave obviously has impact on the outcome.
Delete@marc .. if there is uncertainty in the count, that is the wave! It can be counted as a 'five' or a 'three'. I initially counted as a 'three' with a Leading Expanding Diagonal 'a' wave off the bottom. Remember when I said, "2.618 waves are often difficult in normal impulses. They are more common in diagonals and triangles." And that is why there may be a 'three' or a 'five' there. We'll know soon enough, as invalidation levels are clearly established per the next day's post.
DeleteI am open-minded on this topic.
TJ
As am I then thanks
DeleteSPY 1-Hr: opening gap closed.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Cfd (hrly) - update
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On 10min, move starting down (so far) "looks" like possible 1,2 i,ii. Still within base channel at this point (could change in short order).
DeleteHere's a rough draft path [IF] a i,ii ((1)), ((2)) were to materialize. This could negate at any moment, lol.
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/9vadfz39k2vtl9b/Path.PNG/file
(also looks like a possible triangle for upside move) :)
Deletei,ii ((1)),((2)) busted -
DeleteThat's got to be the most perfect 5 min triangle I have ever seen.
ReplyDeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ