Truncation Averted and a Caution from Crude

11:25 am (ET) Friday

In yesterday's chart of the half-hourly S&P50 cash index, we showed a very clear alternate to the failure wave. We did that because of the potential of "window dressing today", as the last day of the month, with potential fund inflows on the first day of the new month. We have written about this often before, including  in respect to this very chart, so we won't repeat ourselves.

First, the good news: the potential double-flat did not truncate. Today, so far, has made a slightly higher high than the (W) wave. It is shown below in the updated chart. Prices then halted temporarily at the 62% retrace level.

S&P500 Cash Index - Half Hour - Potential Flat Completion

We are now trying to count "five-waves-up" to a C wave, as shown. Also shown at the left on this chart is the Neely guideline relative to when a trend change should start to be counted. As you know, the guideline is the first waves down ((B)) should take less time than the prior fourth wave ((A)), and it does. Overall, the rest of today might wind up be a triangle in the "window dressing", trying to bide time for those first of the month inflows.

None-the-less, other markets are starting to count very well. Gold is one of them. Crude Oil, too. Below is my count on Crude Oil from the same location as the Dec24th low that the stock market made. Notice anything in particular?

Crude Oil Futures - Daily - Three Wave Move

So far, the potential ending diagonal has "all" of the right measurements and zigzag structures. Yes, there could be one more new high in the near future to do the "throw-over" of the upper diagonal trend line, but price has already backed off, and is yet overlapping again. Also, notice that while waves ((A)) and ((B)) are similar in time, wave ((C)) takes much more time than either. That is very good alternation. Further, wave ((A)) is an impulse, and if wave ((C)) is a true diagonal, then that would be nearly perfect alternation.

So now Crude likely counts as a "three-wave", GOLD likely counts as a "three-wave", the NQ likely counts as a "three-wave" in the chart we showed in the comments section yesterday (LINK here). If there is a message here, it should be getting clearer by now.

Have a good start to the day!
TraderJoe