Tuesday, March 19, 2019

One Pattern Reasonably Clear

This thirty-minute pattern on the Dow is reasonably clear. But, unfortunately, it too, provides a slippery alternate.

DJIA Cash Index - Half Hour - Reasonable Counts

Because the (A) wave of the triangle starts with a flat, the triangle can also be interpreted as w-x-triangle y. So, the alternate ((1)), ((2)) count is in blue.

Yesterday, I had called out the possibility of a potential diagonal wave,  but I had said that there was a FLAT wave in the making, so it might not be over with. This morning, due to lengths, and with alternation an impulse can now be counted.

S&P500 Cash Index - Half Hour - No Overlap Impulse
Wave ((4)) does not overlap wave ((1)) in the above chart.

TraderJoe

P.S. Because of downward overlap, the Dow's current ((C)) = ((A)) count could be complete with as close a Fibonacci as you will see.

DJIA Cash - Half Hour - ((C)) = ((A))

It would be another one of those "short fours" for alternation, and a break of the channel on an hourly basis should provide increased confirmation.

29 comments:

  1. I believe a diagonal can be counted on cash SPX. It has an extremely long wave 1.

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    1. See additional information just added to post.

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    2. @Marc do you mean diagonal finished at 2835 as ((1)) then very short ((3)), ((5))?

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    3. Maybe s&p500 truncated because of China news? It didnt overlap on first leg down and then tried to rebound in ((5)) but fell short at 2845?

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  2. Possible 1 min diagonal off top of SPX.

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  3. Joe, i am charting something and have a question. how much time can a y wave take after a 3

    2 to 3 is 9 bars

    3 to w is 5
    w to x is 6

    i have x to y at 12

    does that work?

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    1. Assuming that y made an a-b-c that consumed some of the 12 bars, then I don't see a big problem with it; and price must be added in as a factor.

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    2. x to a and b to c in the y wave less in price than 3 to w?

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  4. Most recent (3) > (1) in the 30-minute Dow chart.

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  5. CNBC: Stocks rapidly give back gains on report China walking back trade concessions

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  6. A third chart was added as a P.S. a few moments ago. The Dow has downward overlap.

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  7. 0-2 TL broken in impulse posted above

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  8. Joe, i think that was biggest decline of uptrend last several days.

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  9. joe, do you count declines from max to min of wave or from beginning to end in case it terminates above the low? thanks

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    Replies
    1. ..both .. look for 'confluence' of Fibonacci levels.

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  10. think we should consider whether it makes sense that the 0-2 TL can be broken only if it is followed by a change in degree....

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  11. Joe, since you've been studying the charts have you noticed anything about diagonals and how quick they get below their start. does that add any predictive value going forward?

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  12. Downward retrace since 13:00 ET in all markets is 90% or better; new low in the Dow and Rut futures.

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  13. I think this wave counts best as abc of some sort?

    https://i.imgur.com/v8dBUOy.png

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    Replies
    1. I know (b) smaller than 2 of (a) and (c) smaller than 1 of (a) but let’s see

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  14. Yesterday's S&P500 cash gap closed.

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    Replies
    1. leaves 2 more easily spotted below

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    2. YM futures just touched their 18-day "line in the sand", after not having made the new highs since late February,

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  15. A new post has been started for the next day.

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  16. This comment has been removed by the author.

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