Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Brexit Mish-mash

The House of Commons voted down Prime Minister Theresa May's revised proposal which was to provide certain legal assurances and offer a defined 'deal' to the process. By being voted down, the stage is set for continued uncertainty in the U.K., including calls for the P.M. to step down. We don't know how this will go in the end. 

Yesterday, we cited the count of a likely 'a' wave up. Today during our comments we cited the possibility of starting the 'b' wave down. A chart is below.

S&P500 Cash Index - 15 Minutes - Possibly into b lower

This sideways wave, with marginally higher highs is one of the longest waves in time since the recent up turn began. For this reason, we think the degree of the wave has turned from 'a' to 'b'. Filling the gap made today would help provide confirmation. Sometimes, 'b' waves stop at the fourth wave of a lower degree, and  that would be about a 38% retrace. (But, it could also go lower). Then, we might expect a 'c' wave up to begin.

All-in-all, with the exception of the gaps, the trade has been real grinding and choppy.

Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
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33 comments:

  1. pbeckMarch 12, 2019 at 11:11 PM

    Thanks joe

    ReplyDelete
  2. marcMarch 12, 2019 at 11:13 PM

    thanks joe,
    and a special thanks for pointing out that second wave diagonal drawing.

    ReplyDelete
  3. HopeandFaithtzMarch 13, 2019 at 2:57 AM

    Thanks Joe

    I would love to know the name of your YT channel

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderMarch 13, 2019 at 11:53 AM

      The YouTube channel was discontinued due to abuse. When I post videos they will appear on this site.

      Welcome, TJ.

      Delete
  4. SnippitMarch 13, 2019 at 5:49 AM

    Your choice of the incomplete bear trend take is intriguing. Many other practitioners have gone with the commence of a new bull trend.
    It seems that both views can be equally supported by Elliott theory at this time, but confirmation of the correct one may take quite some time yet.

    ReplyDelete
  5. tachartsMarch 13, 2019 at 9:19 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Erik BMarch 13, 2019 at 9:21 AM


    TJ I’m posting my chart again so you don’t forget. No degree violation between any sub-wave of the diagonal and ((a)). Also I can’t count 5 waves in (i) without forcing a smaller degree iv..so I think (i) counts best as abc..
    Thanks!!
    https://imgur.com/gallery/YLmAjgM

    ReplyDelete
  7. KevinMarch 13, 2019 at 11:07 AM

    SP cash complete 5 wave up at 2814 from Friday low? If so, a wave (i) or C?

    ReplyDelete
  8. KAVIAARMarch 13, 2019 at 11:17 AM

    I think it is an ABC up to a new high, can fit in the Erik B count

    ReplyDelete
  9. scoutMarch 13, 2019 at 11:51 AM

    My thesis and contention has been that there was a truncation on Jan 6. The fed righted the ship on that day. My upward count begins on that day giving the same a/b used on this site, but that changes the expectation of c to 2850 area for a=c. I count the last low as iv and am looking for the completion of 5 waves up from that point for C (2 or B).

    ReplyDelete
  10. marcMarch 13, 2019 at 11:51 AM

    ET,
    running out of bearish counts. I still see the diagonal i mentioned 2 days ago for ((c)) which you said had violations, and even in f valid it needs more time and 2840+ to complete.

    How about something like this?
    https://imgur.com/nci09rR


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderMarch 13, 2019 at 12:20 PM

      Can not be a flat (your fourth wave) in the ending diagonal portion. Totally against the rules.

      Delete
  11. KVMarch 13, 2019 at 12:14 PM

    Radio silence from ET after incorrect count? hmmmm....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderMarch 13, 2019 at 12:22 PM

      Oh, I'm just following this lovely little pattern on the Russell 2000 futures and waiting to see if it confirms or is a fourth wave.

      https://invst.ly/a9t3u

      For the moment I am most interested in the 'weaker' sectors rather than the stronger ones. But I still have an idea on the S&P500. Just waiting...

      TJ

      Delete
    2. KevinMarch 13, 2019 at 12:46 PM

      Overlaying the SP cash over the RUT the rally off Friday low are extremely similar, and look to be 5 waves. Impulse or a C to end (ii) of some kind?

      Delete
    3. scoutMarch 13, 2019 at 12:50 PM

      I see the same.

      Delete
    4. Elliott_TraderMarch 13, 2019 at 1:48 PM

      As of 1:45 pm ET, the Russell pattern has taken "too much time" to have resolved a diagonal. Possible triangle or flat fourth wave most likely.

      Delete
    5. Elliott_TraderMarch 13, 2019 at 2:05 PM

      DJIA cash has the marginal new high; and ES futures.

      Delete
  12. marcMarch 13, 2019 at 12:20 PM

    in his defense, this time he did not place the ((c)) on chart implying upward move was done.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Elliott_TraderMarch 13, 2019 at 2:17 PM

    Not sure what it means yet, but the DOW has this five-minute pattern; "possibly" building a diagonal. Has recent overlap anyway.

    https://invst.ly/a9uld

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderMarch 13, 2019 at 2:24 PM

      A diagonal in the DJIA would invalidate below 25,704 (as wave four would be longer than wave two).

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderMarch 13, 2019 at 2:30 PM

      Diagonal in DOW just invalidated too.

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderMarch 13, 2019 at 2:31 PM

      That leaves a flat in the Dow, as the last chance up wave.

      Delete
    4. Elliott_TraderMarch 13, 2019 at 2:33 PM

      ..otherwise, we topped in a triangle in the DOW

      Delete
    5. Elliott_TraderMarch 13, 2019 at 2:45 PM

      Last chance ivth wave in the Dow, or, we topped.

      https://invst.ly/a9uyi

      TJ

      Delete
    6. Elliott_TraderMarch 13, 2019 at 2:49 PM

      Dow has overlapped downward. Done.

      Delete
    7. marcMarch 13, 2019 at 3:07 PM

      whats "done"?

      Delete
    8. marcMarch 13, 2019 at 3:12 PM

      couldnt we have finished (1) at 1130 am yesterday and expanded flat bottoming as (2) with big wave 3 coming for uptrend since 2720 low? trying to look at all possibilities.

      Delete
    9. marcMarch 13, 2019 at 3:16 PM

      meant 1130 today

      Delete
  14. mblctaMarch 13, 2019 at 2:49 PM

    I count 11 waves up from 2347-2821. That's a triple zig-zag. If correct, then it should all come tumbling down.

    ReplyDelete
  15. scoutMarch 13, 2019 at 2:51 PM

    That could very well be it.

    ReplyDelete
  16. BillyMarch 13, 2019 at 2:52 PM

    https://imgur.com/e2SBR9M
    https://imgur.com/iEIqYax

    ReplyDelete
  17. BillyMarch 13, 2019 at 3:33 PM

    DAX Futures have moved down somewhat in line with Wall Street weakness subsequent to the posting of the above charts. The "d wave" of the proposed triangle retraced 81% of the "c wave". The location of these 2 waves are at 11606 and 11475 respectively. 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels of the "d wave" (for the purposes of potentially helping to identify the location of the "e wave" of the proposed triangle) exist at 11524 and 11503 respectively. The DAX is currently trading at 11573.

    ReplyDelete

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