According to The Eight Fold Path Methodology with 128 candles on the S&P500 Cash Index 15-minute chart, below, there are only three non-overlapping waves down from the top, so far.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - 15 Minute - Three Waves Down |
Based on degree labeling requirements, we are very sure that wave ii / b is a sharp wave. Wave iii / c down is in five non-overlapping waves. Wave ((3)) of iii / c is on the low of the Elliott Wave Oscillator, and wave ((5)) of iii / c diverges from it. Wave iii / c is just 2 points shy of a 1.618 extension on the first wave down. Not too bad.
The Elliott Wave Oscillator for wave iv? is already above the zero line. And the b wave of the possible wave iv did exceed the 90% level to qualify for a potential true flat. For this count to hold, it would be good to see wave iv end in the vicinity of the prior wave ((4)), and it must not overlap wave i / a down for the impulse count. Otherwise, one-two-three is the same as a-b-c until it is not.
IF for some reason there is overlap on wave i / a on Monday, then yet another diagonal count would have to be considered lower as the alternate.
Have a very good start to the weekend,
TraderJoe
Very nice! I'm not sure if we triangle out for a few days or move higher. Maybe RSI will provide an answer if it's rejected at 55 or 60. Using RSI 14 on daily chart
ReplyDeleteJoe, wave (ii) of ((5)) of iii/c (10.65 points) is larger than wave ((ii)) of iii/c (8.71 points). How is that not a degree violation? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThe wave terminus you are referring to is not ((ii)), it is ((iv)) in that wave. The ((ii)) is buried near the high of that wave. Need a 5 min chart to see it.
DeleteThe ii - iv line, 38% retrace of iii/c and 200d sma all intersect near 2750 Monday.
ReplyDeleteI am showing about 12 of the 35 IBD Leaderboard stocks are rolling over. Even with today's recovery, these stocks did not show a good rebound. This is fitting nicely with the counts above.
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ReplyDeleteA bit of weekend food for thought. See chart above first.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/mwc2kk1
Neely's guideline was satisfied on the 4-hr futures at the red star as in the chart below, making it the more reasonable truncation.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/a8n3r
In your chart, you show "all five waves down". It should be very difficult to find all five waves (with new lows) in the truncation as that is the meaning of the truncated fifth. There shouldn't be a fifth with a lower low.
And, more importantly, here is how the Neely guideline is satisfied at the recent high, truncation or not.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/a8n6u
TJ
Hi Joe
DeleteIn Neely Q&A he says "The most reliable time forecasts are possible when two adjacent, same-degree waves (within the same pattern) take vastly different amounts of time. In that case, the third in the sequence will nearly always be half of the previous two combined. Therefore, if waves-a & c are equal in time, I can only know wave-e will be different in time than a or c, but I won't know if it will be larger or smaller. So, if a & c or similar in time, I'll take a look at waves-c & d to help with a forecast. If c & d are vastly different in time, I'll use that relationship to project the time for wave-e. Occasionally, both relationships can be used to more precisely pinpoint the final time range for wave-e."
Is this something you regularly employ? I'm not sure that I've seen you do so. Thanks again for your generosity.
Sure you have. When I counted the ((b)) wave as (w)-(x)-(y), the (w) wave was 8/9 days, and the (x) wave was 8/9 days. So, the (y) wave was only 6 days to alternate.
DeleteHmm YM dji futures only 0.19% from overlap..I guess not likely YM does a diagonal while ES futures an impuls?
ReplyDelete..or both could diagonal. No telling yet.
DeleteThe Boeing plane crash will weigh on the DJI futures. Second new plane crashes shortly after takeoff within 8 months, that's gonna leave a mark on BA stock chart.
ReplyDeleteBA is about 11% of the index
ReplyDeleteES is above top of 30min TL. It wedged into it but could not turn lower. IMHO the 3rd or C wave down to 2726.25 really lost impulsive strength.
ReplyDeleteReally reminds me of December. Good luck today all.
DeleteI have 2,760 as 2.62 x (a).
ReplyDeleteNQ has the upward overlap. EWO on the cash S&P500 has exceeded -40%, so it looks odd too.
ReplyDeleteNQ already at 61.8 so most likely C of diagonal?
DeleteCash now has the overlap; and a 62% retrace on the third wave; only possible downward count would be a 5:3:5:3:5 diagonal, but now, that must prove itself with a lower low.
ReplyDeleteThis could also be the 4 of an exp diagonal but maybe that is what you meant
DeleteNow gap fill from Mar 6 - 7.
Delete@Erik; yes that's what I meant.
DeleteThe important xlc sector is forming a potential ending diagonal on 1 min lets see
ReplyDeleteCould it have been a failed 5th around 1330 on Friday, and then impulsive from there?
ReplyDeletePreferred not to see failures this early in a downward count.
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DeleteIf it's a wave iv of a diagonal; it can take a bit more time to become longer than ii. It's not quite there yet.
ReplyDeleteRather than calling it 3 waves down from the top to 2722, and being required to look at a 5 min chart in order to find an otherwise invisible wave ((ii)) of ((5)), which doesn't work in the DOW anyway, it's also possible to count 5 waves down from the top as follows: 2773-2796-2739-2750-2722. This works in SPX, NDX, and DOW and is clearly visible on the 15 min chart. That means the current rally has retraced back to the 20dma, which is also the 50% level. So it's still standard operating procedure at this point.
ReplyDeleteNope. There is no 1.618 extension; and the third downward wave was 2 points shy of 1.618; so more likely the diagonal count. Longer, but not a full-on impulse.
DeleteTrend is looking for the middle of the bollinger's chart, then we'll see
ReplyDelete((c)) of 2 may not be finished
ReplyDeletethis could be wave 5 of diagonal from ((b))
today was overlap of (i) of diagonal
thats only bearish count i can see other than ET current
I'm asking ... wouldn't that make (v) of ((c)) longer than any other wave in the up wave, such as minute ((b)) and a degree violation for that reason?
Deletei dont know - i probably have labeled c differently than you are looking at. lets wait and see. thanks
DeleteCop out. Lol.
DeleteMy previous five-minute chart was incorrect; can't have a -iii as a sub-wave longer than 'a'. At least I admit when I am incorrect. Best to assume the case of a-b-c down, where c has the slight truncation, and is shorter than 1.618. Then a new set of up waves as a-b-c.
ReplyDeleteThis looks and measures better from a degree perspective. As I said in the weekend update, "1,2,3 is the same as a-b-c until proven different".
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/a8-fu
TJ
thanks joe
DeleteWave -iv has more time than wave -ii, across a channel, and now a new high.
DeleteHi Joe, have you seen the Nasaq? If we take out the high of the wave 2 the potential diagonal lower is then invalid on SPX as well or no? Thank you!
DeleteWave -iii at 2.618 and wave -iv very shallow across the channel, and a new high. Chart below.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/a90bc
TJ
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ReplyDeleteJoe -
ReplyDeleteTrying to learn how to take the evolution of real time intraday counts and turn it into actionable trade ideas and projections.
Big assumption that if the triangle proves itself out, is this what you have in mind for the road map. These are 1 hour SPX charts.
Expanding Diagonal: https://imgur.com/S5jTmXB
Contracting Diagonal: https://imgur.com/7lHW1r2
Thanks in advance
-TJ
diagram 2 would be drawn correctly; but not diagram 1, as the third and the fifth waves must be longer.
DeleteDOW now has the iv on ii overlap assuming 3 waves down. This obviously is an expanding diagonal count because at only 45% the retrace is too shallow to be a ii as part of a larger diagonal. Wave ivs for SPX, ES & NQ as part of an expanding diagonal are also still viable counts. However this possible scenario does not have much wiggle room because at 83% already the NQ retrace threatens to go "over the top" with one more serious push.
ReplyDeleteI think waves ii and iv in all DTs have to be zig-zags, but because of what happened to Boeing this morning, the DOW has an expanded flat up from Friday's lows.
DeleteLooking for an e-d fifth wave of 'a', up, on SPX 5 minutes. Very narrow overlapping waves.
ReplyDeleteA move below 2,778 S&P500 cash should end the diagonal
DeleteBy the cash close, there was not yet a higher high, but insufficient movement lower to claim the diagonal had ended.
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ReplyDeleteWould love to see an updated SPX to world central bank balance sheets chart.
ReplyDeleteFound it
Deletehttps://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockfedecbassets.pdf
Page 2, chart 4.