The FOMC meeting results were announced today, and the FED announced several action steps.
There will be no more interest rate hikes this year, and they will complete the balance sheet roll-off at the end of September. Interest rates were kept the same, and the outlook for employment growth was reduced.
If you ask me, the FED is running full-on scared of a recession dead-ahead. Why else would they take such a clear reversal of policy?
The markets started out the day making a lower daily low, and popped on the FED news but did not make a new daily high. Then an intraday retracement began which darn near made 78.6%. The overnight needs to be watched closely to see whether the upward wave invalidates lower.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Spinning Top Confirmed |
For what it's worth, today's lower close did provide tentative confirmation of the "spinning top" candle after the Fibonacci 55 days of uptrend we pointed out yesterday. Is the entire move, upward, over? It is too early to say for sure, but the evidence is gathering. The Dow and the Russell still have not made a new high, and today the ES futures did not make a new higher high day, while the NQ futures did. The market seems to be splitting in a way that requires a great deal of attention at the moment.
All-in-all, we'd have to grade the market's reaction to the FED actions as "lack-luster" today. We will also note, this high currently has no unfilled gaps.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
The Dow futures (YM) broke their low in the after-hours. In other words, they gave back 'all' of the gains made on the FED news, and then some.
ReplyDeletethanks joe
ReplyDeletevery interesting ... no other comments
Many thanks,
ReplyDeleteYes I think readers are busy with watching futures tryin to get a decent entry, or am I just talking about my self..lol
Agree with you TJ total capitulation from fed and markets aint buying Powells ”economy is great”, and this time the fear might be stronger than the greed from lower rates..?
Marc regarding the expanded diagonal, I quess it can travell pretty far until invalidation?
Deletehttps://i.imgur.com/CkOxOqM.png
Semi Conductors and Technology stocks are going to need to reverse today or bears are in trouble again. Too much strength for too many stocks again right now. There are a lot of new highs even this morning after 15 minutes.
ReplyDeleteAgree Todd but many other sectors like financials are deep red, watching this potential ending diagonal on tech
Deletehttps://i.imgur.com/kbm922J.png
Thanks Erik! That was kind of you to reply.
DeleteI hope you are right. I am thinking the market will begin sector rotation as it goes up to new highs.
Diagonal invalidated, maybe your right Todd looks like tech and semis har going for its ath
DeleteLooking at a 15 minute cash SP500 index: is it possible we are forming a "d" wave of a larger triangle whose "a" wave began with the initial drop on March 19th?
ReplyDeleteSee below, Mark.
DeleteThanks, Joe! Makes more sense.
DeleteI would have no problem with an ending diagonal minute ((c)) wave on the hourly chart, as follows. Caution is the by-word.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/acd3h
TJ
We said the first wave down could be counted as an A or a 1, down. If it's an A, then this morning's cash low, and lower futures low can be C.
Delete..and such a pattern puts wave (iii) above its (0) - (ii) trend line.
DeleteSP500 cash just went over the FED high.
DeleteLooking at a volume chart, I wonder if we could be in or have completed c of B?
DeleteJust wondering
https://imgur.com/a/2Vle5lo
Meant to point out it is futures
DeleteFor those that follow GOLD, here is a four-hour chart showing the classic "double zigzag" which 'can' be all of a 'B' wave. Notice the overlaps that prevent counting as a impulse. The second b wave overlaps the first 'a' wave up. A retrace and lower low might start to finish a zigzag lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/acdl5
TJ
TJ and Marc please take look, IF we make new lows from here, can this work?!
Deletehttps://i.imgur.com/owPGm8I.png
Wouldn’t this suit DOW and Russell much better?
Delete@ErikB .. you need to stick a small 'a' on 2725, and a 'b' below it in Feb for that to work. It's 'possible', but it could go longer too, as in the hourly version I showed.
DeleteThats great! Let’s see then
DeleteTj, with regards to the different possebilities spx can morph into, what would you consider being a good trigger for entering a short position in this situation? A break of the 18 day ema? Or a break of the dec-march trendline? I don’t consider it being a ”recommendation” just your personal opinion.
ReplyDeleteI understand and accept if you dont want to answer :).
In an up market Elliott wave analysts wait for a recognizable pattern that completes in an acceptable manner, or with an acceptable truncation before starting a downward count. No trading or investment advice is intended or offered, and is not to be taken from this comment.
DeleteUnderstood and thanks!
DeleteET,
ReplyDeleteI'm having reservations about the 0-2 TL guideline/rule. Are you firm in your belief that it is an inherent property of impulses? Have you done any analysis independent of Neely? I guess I'm perplexed that that 0-2 TL continues to get broken on many time frames. I am guessing you are going to tell me its not an impulse I am looking at but I still have a more theoretical concern if you ever can address.
I guess I can not address your non-specific (emotion based?) question. It would be helpful to have your specific example to review.
Deleteits an not emotional question. Example is by using the 0-2 TL since Dec Low the only impulse count once its enforced is where we just began the iii of (iii). However without the rule the an impulse can be near complete. So are you comfortable with the size of the waves being imposed by applying guideline, given there are counts which could resolve lower and quicker if that guideline was not imposed. I've done a lot of work quantifying the difference in wave sizes and duration's with and without this guideline and was curious how you felt.
ReplyDeleteSee next day's post.
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete