With today's stock market movements, it's time to be on the watch-out for a failed combination upward as a second wave. These types of movements have been observed in the past to start strong down drafts. The 'reason' for the potential failure is that the as yet unobserved third wave down is exerting significant downward pressure on the upward wave.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - 30-Minutes - Watch Closely |
Any movement below wave ((1)) would be better confirmation of the count shown in black. The alternate still allows for a flat to complete, but not below (X). It's wave ((2)) is in red.
The alternate count is that since the (X) wave, then A is 1, and B is a smaller degree 'a' wave, with C as a smaller degree 'b' wave, and this morning's down-draft is the smaller degree 'c' wave of a flat for wave 2 of C, upward. This would try to avoid the truncation.
I have no preference which occurs as either are acceptable Elliott Wave Counts from what I can see. The trend line is tentative, and any further lower degree second waves should respect it. If a higher wave ((2)) occurs, it should limit to a 0.618 retrace, and the trend line would be re-drawn.
Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe
yes i have been thinking same thing. Does the gap at the top mean anything to you as far as your outlook on counts or prices?
ReplyDeleteSee my 1:43 pm comment, below.
DeleteThank you Joe !
ReplyDeleteWelcome korhan!
DeleteThis is the best resolution of a probable top I can determine in any index except the DJIA at this point. It is the NASDAQ 100 futures.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/aejwo
TJ
The Fibo ruler markings are a little clearer here.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/aejyo
TJ
tremendous work
Deletefailure count invalidated?
DeleteInvalidation has high odds... let's see how it goes tomorrow.
DeleteSPX getting some resistance at the 62% retrace of this morning's down move.
ReplyDeleteMaybe a diagonal on 1 min chart?
ReplyDeleteWow! Great work
ReplyDeleteGold stopped at damn near perfect 2.618 from 1296.
ReplyDelete...sure did!
Deletesorry 1331
DeleteI am thinking we are at 4 of 3.
DeleteJoe, I want to say thanks for you comments on gold in the other the previous blog post.
ReplyDeleteCan you explain how the long 2 in gold works out from a while back? Going through the measurements and the why and why not.
Thx Gerald, and thanks for recognizing the "too long in time" b? wave, too. From which day are you referring regarding gold?
DeleteI believe the crux of the post was you responding to what the maximum time of a second wave relative to a first wave by suggesting we study a long term gold chart....
Delete
DeleteThere was a real long 2 in gold relative to 1. You said I would have missed that bull market and I would because I can't get it to count valid in time and price. I don't understand how and why it works. If I get this cleared up I would have a much better knack at counting.
I don't understand what part of the count you are having problems with. Wave 2 retraced 99% of wave 1, and was followed (after several months of making wave 2) by a new high, during which wave 3 never looked back.
Deleteif aug 23 1999 is low on weekly
Deleteoct 4 1999 is 1
a is 12/6/1999
that is a 3 wave move so i can understand how it can be longer
than 1 in time.
but then how can the b at 2/7/1999 also be longer in time than
0 to 1?
We know that Aug 23 is Primary ((4)), and Oct 4th is Intermediate (1) of Primary ((5)). We also know that Feb 19th 2001 is Intermediate (2). Therefore your loose choice of the symbol 'a' on 12/6/1999 is Minor A, and is smaller than Intermediate (2), and for 'b' on 2/7/1999 is Minor B and is smaller than Intermediate (2). From 2/7/1999 to Feb 19th 2001 is Minor C. There are three smaller degree waves that comprise Intermediate (2). Each is smaller in time and price than Intermediate (2).
DeleteTherefore, there is no degree conflict within Intermediate (2). Three waves of smaller degree make up a wave of larger degree.
If you really want to research this topic more for yourself, ask how long it was from the $164 / oz GOLD price in the panic of 1869, to circa 1970 during which the GOLD price was fixed at $35 / oz. Quite a long wave two - don't you say?
Thanks, Joe. I think I understand this a lot better now.
DeleteI have one last question why do you choose 2/19/01 for the end of 2 and not 4/2/01?
both have a low of 255.00.
if 2 ended at 2/19 and the up move begins how can we make a move up but then retrace all the way to 255.00? I thought 2 would be 4/2.
Market looks to be in a blastoff sequence ^^^^
ReplyDeleteQualitative and opinion-based, Scotty. Beam me down. You're supposed to be the Engineer on this Starship.
DeleteNot necessarily. Experienced traders recognize that some kinds of patterns and price action can offer reliable clues as to likely market direction. Some of the best traders I know do not use EWT.
DeleteWe're not talking about 'trading'. We're talking about 'wave counting'. This is the last warning, Verne.
DeleteWarning about what TJ??
DeleteWhy are you so hostile to any comments remotely alluding the reason we all study markets, which is to execute ttrades profitably?
You are nothing but a big hypocrite, and you sure as hell don't intimidate me my friend. Stick your warning!
Hi Dom:
ReplyDeleteSorry I missed your earlier question.
My long term target for the move up out of the consolidation pattern is around 2875.00
Looking to me like a big ED...
gold up to top channel line.
ReplyDeleteand 38% retrace of last move. EWO is a tad stronger than 40%.
Deletethis up move looks a lot like the move up to 1331
Deletechannel and .38 held. Think we get one more low mid channel before a retrace. The 2.618 extension seems to much for a 1 of LD down.
DeleteNice and clean for a change.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/Yhk6Xbl
Completely agree, BBR! Who said two Elliott analysts can't agree on the same count?!
DeleteThx teacher! The length of 1 gets us close to a new low. I think after a 2.618 extension is should be watching for a truncated 5 as well.
DeleteThis thing needs to form a triangle from about 2,820 or there's going to be a wave-counting problem - like a truncation.
ReplyDeleteThat's better!
DeleteI am not following but I'll eventually catch up.
Deletetriangle for wave 4 of c ?
ReplyDeletethat's my thinking too, korhan.
Delete