The ES 4-hr chart in this sketch has about 120 candles on it. The count could work for cash and for the lead month contract (Dec futures only, not the roll-over).
Between yesterday and today there were only three-waves-up as we showed. We don't know upward movement has ended, but we did get downward overlaps today as per the comments in the prior post.
In this count, an alternating wave 4 might prove to be a flat or an expanded flat wave. Wave iii of 3 occurs on the trough of the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) as per The Eight-Fold-Path Methodology and wave v of 3 occurs on the divergence. It looks like the EWO is making a bee-line for the -10% to +40% area of the indicator panel. A retrace for wave 4 beyond 50% would be suspect.
Remember, the daily slow stochastic is still embedded and the daily bias remains lower.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Peculiar we are not seeing 3rd wave acc channel breaks...
ReplyDeleteIt's too calm and the rsi on daily is way too low
DeleteRSI has yet to go under 30.
DeleteES 1-Hr: here is that potential diagonal I noted yesterday that bulls could look for. Watch for potential overlap on wave ①.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/x1f1roVe/
And note there is one way in the futures the diagonal could be complete already (lower the upper dashed trend line to the prior peak).
TJ
In real-time (chart is behind) overlap has occurred. TJ.
DeleteHere is the chart showing overlap.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sIdxJxKd/
TJ
I am still thinking this maybe part of a flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/ltD60NU
The channel says.
Deletehttps://tenor.com/view/dumb-and-dumber-comedy-jim-carrey-excited-happy-gif-10308926303665370357
Down to the bottom of the channel.
DeleteIt can be. It can also form one flat, and then form a second one (i.e. compound flat). You know those fourth waves (or possibly second wave but seems small yet for that). TJ.
DeleteES 1-Hr: in real time the diagonal ended at the earlier location mentioned, as the down wave is now too long for a fourth wave, it is longer than the second.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OJQAoxR5/
TJ
ES 1-Hr: now below wave ② of diagonal in real-time. TJ.
DeleteES 1-Hr: here's the chart showing the break of the wave ② low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NVcb8Lug/
TJ
Just fyi - (From Reuters)
ReplyDeleteRepublicans reject own funding bill, US government shutdown imminent
By Moira Warburton and Richard Cowan
September 29, 20232:57 PM EDTUpdated 13 min ago
TJ
ES 5 min: at 4,336 ES is barely in range of a fourth wave. If it holds, great. If not, and going into the close 4,345 is exceeded higher, then consider the down wave as having had an extended fifth, and so just i, at the low, and ii, up. Let's see how it goes. TJ.
ReplyDelete..now at 4,340; well at least I saw that one coming. TJ.
Delete50% retrace of entire down wave; good enough for a second wave or could still form a flat for a wave longer in time. TJ.
Delete..could also form a multiple zigzag, up. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ, you suggested a 50%+ retrace for wave 4 expected. What is your clue to a deep retrace?
ReplyDelete