Between yesterday and this morning before the FOMC report-out there were only three-waves-up. As the ES daily chart, below, shows, the 18-day SMA (or "the line in the sand") was never crossed to the upside. The bias remained lower all day.
In a still whippy session, prices then headed for the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 100-day SMA (green crosses) as shown above. We had said that if the first down (red) fractal back was exceeded lower, it could be an omen for a larger decline. So far, it has been.
The second and third down (red) fractals back have now also been added to the chart. If price exceeds these it indicates the market is gathering significant power to the downside.
Right now, the down count - as we said in the comments for the prior post - can, in terms of degree labeling, be considered a nested 1-2-i-ii count lower. The local count can also be a diagonal (see the chart at this LINK).
In terms of any upward wave counts, one has to simply recognize that the market is making daily lower lows. Three things would be required to start any upward Elliott Wave count. Those three things are:
- Daily higher highs
- Price close above the 18-day SMA
- Price breaks the first of the up (green) fractals back
The diagonal looks nice on the 2 hour ES with the EWO and 34 sma.
ReplyDeleteHead and shoulders since mid June as well.
Similarities to 1929 continue to be evident, it was at this stage/date that the decline got going back then with a bit more vigour. If the similarities continue, the rest of this week could be dire for bulls (and next week too):
ReplyDeletehttps://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/3/10/763684-129977749528191-ChartProphet_origin.png
I have counted that wave from 1929 to 1933 and not a single wave missing in a perfect ABC.
DeleteWTI/Oil:
ReplyDeleteWave ii is complete at the 63.57 low and has started to rally higher in wave iii. Within wave iii it is rallying in wave i and within wave i, we have now completed wave (iv) at the 77.59 low and are now rallying in wave (v).
Wave (v) and all of wave i could continue to rally all the way to the next major resistance line which is the 93.64/93.74 area, before both of these waves end.
They could also now be complete at the 92.43 high
I expect wave ii should correct between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave i rally.
In the longer term the initial projected endpoint for the end of wave iii is almost surreal and implies massive inflation and civil unrest are almost certain to happen.
I'm not quite sure of your analysis. A lot of anaylsts consider price. Fewer consider time. According to this analysis there could be more time for a decline so that it equals the time of the rise.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/11gy6p
The other thing I'm not sure of is how Elliott would consider the "prices below zero" portion of the chart.
TJ
Using the Dec ES contract, the EWO has lost the divergence for a wave five in a contracting diagonal.
ReplyDeleteWill see if it tries to hold here.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/blK0Xta
Hung around but said goodbye.
DeleteMorning TraderJoe - As you know, I've been an almost daily reader of your blog for 6+ years. I always praise your discipline in developing a count which allows you to stick to your thesis longer compared to other analysts who update counts like the wind. This allows us to develop better trading parameters. I realize this is a EW counting blog so not going to get into trade positioning, but I suspect more than a few use this analysis to formulate trading plans.
ReplyDeleteTo get to my point, because of your ability to 'see' EWs, what you say on the blog is scrutinized (kind of like Jay Powell lol). Almost all of your recent posts suggest that we should be "patient, calm, and flexible" whether we're in low volatility market or on the cusp of a nested setup for a wave III. When should we panic? (i.e deploy deep OTM option strategies)?
TJ .. the opposite of "patient, calm & flexible" is not "panic", lol. The opposite is following the Confirmation Protocol to see if a more levered position is warranted (not trading or investment advice - just a technical indicator). That protocol is always the same depending on the time frame. 1) Break the local channel, 2) attempt to back-test the channel, and 3) fail below the initial break of the channel. It is diagrammed on the 3-day S&P cash - to eliminate the hijinks currently associated with the +50 point futures premium - as below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jvNuNLZv/
For those new to Elliott Wave, what one is 'trying' to do is to "rule-in, or rule-out" a fourth wave. If the channel holds or nearly holds a fourth wave has to be ruled-in. If the channel breaks down significantly, then, by The Principle of Equivalence the high had to be the C of the A,B,C.
This is spelled out quickly in The Eight-Fold-Path Method post, which is the featured post on the upper right-hand side of the main blog page. Hopefully, the above just makes it more plain.
TJ
Oh boy, look at those bond yields!
ReplyDeleteWhen you get a chance over the next few weeks, can you provide a multi year POV on other asset classes? Gold, Silver, TLT, Oil? Where can we hide for the next 5-10 years? Thanks
-TJ
I was looking at /ZB early this morning and that looks like a valid Ending Diagonal going back to 2009 on the monthly.
DeleteThe bunch bowl may have a not fixable leak!
TJ may have already spotted this, but this is what slapped me in the face this morning.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/Tiv5I74
..and that would be confirmed if the low of the diagonal was exceeded in 'less time' than the diagonal took to form. Excellent work, as the measurements all fit. TJ.
DeleteThanks BBRider. Wave 5 is smaller in time than wave 3. Not sure if that's a deal breaker for the expanding diagonals. Hypothetically, if this expanding diagonal is confirmed to be valid, does that indicate we're going back to zero bound or lower for interest rates? Thing deflationary shock or yield curve control.
DeleteES daily - first down (red) fractal back has been exceeded lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TgJFFbCm/
TJ
On the Dec contract, the second down (red) fractal back has been exceeded lower. (Chart still behind). The market structure is getting weaker with lower highs and lower lows. TJ.
Deletehere's the chart showing the fractal break...
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/V09uAgF9/
TJ
On /ES, 4365 looks like horizontal support and the neckline.
ReplyDeleteES hourly future now has about 103 candles (still much less than 160), and the EWO is still not diverging at the low. Also, approaching 1.618 x 1 from the count shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4pEMZp3X/
TJ
ES 1-Hr: reaches 1.618 at 4,390. TJ.
DeleteSmall Caps (IWM) have gapped down through a head and shoulders neckline. With pros generally considering Russell 2000 to be index most attuned to US economy, seems like they're not buying FOMC's rosy SEP released yesterday.
ReplyDeleteSPX 2-Hr: try to keep track of the larger time-frames too as this 2-hr chart is very clean. If there is a 'mid-point' gap then an extension to 1.618, 2.618 or more is possible.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nPshlrFu/
TJ
TJ,
DeleteRegarding your previous post mentioning a potential 1,2 1,2 setup, with today's cash gap down could that represent a "point of recognition" that we are in a 3 of 3? Or too early to tell yet?
Thanks
SPX 2-Hr: now hits 1.618 a couple minutes before the close. TJ.
DeleteIt is 'one' of the points of recognition, but it may not be the most serious one, as the SPX 3-day channel is not broken yet. In other words it is likely 'three' of a larger one, not three of three. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Hello Wise One, and thank you for all your great analysis and instruction.
ReplyDeleteIn looking at the NASDAQ from the 12/28/2022 low, looking at a daily chart, can we count an impulsive upward wave of i (Feb 2), ii (Mar 10), iii (Jul 19), and currently in iv? Of that iv, a (Aug 18) was ~1,070 points, b was on Sep 1, and c in progress. a=c would be ~13,000.
It appears iv would have good alternation and appropriate scale vs. ii. What else would invalidate iv, other than crossing below i at ~12,200? It does appear that the current wave down would have already fallen out of the upward channel since 12/28/2022.
Thanks in advance for your thoughts!