As we showed earlier today in the comments, The Eight-Fold-Path Method (TEFPM) with about 97 candles on the ES hourly line chart, immediately below, provides for a potential fourth wave, 4, in progress.
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| ES Futures - Hourly Close - Potential Impulse Lower |
IF and only IF (IFF) the fourth wave forms within acceptable limits, there is no upward overlap, and then there is a fifth wave new low, 5, then it might be possible claim an impulse lower has formed. Don't take my word for it. The evidence comes from the Elliott Wave Oscillator with the lowest trough on the EWO being marked for wave ③ of 3, and the divergence being marked as wave ⑤ of 3. (Note: the degree labels are just for relative illustration at this time.)
Since wave 2 appears to be a sideways flat, it is possible for wave 4 to be a zigzag or triangle at this point. And the Elliott Wave Oscillator may try to return to near the zero line.
For serious students of Elliott Wave, here is how we have already counted the waves since the wave 3 low on the 5-minute chart of the SPY cash ETF into the cash close today.
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| SPY Cash ETF - 5 min - Likely an eventual Zigzag |
Note how the market is trying to use every 'trick-in-the-book' to confuse and cajole novices and pros into making the wrong moves at the wrong times. All I can tell you is that if you are serious wave student, you may wish to dig in to see why these waves were counted as they are.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Be careful! TradingView and some others are doing the roll-over to the DEC futures contract tonight. This greatly distorts the potential wave 4, shown above. Try graphing using only the ESZ23 contract, and it looks similar to the above. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 1Hr: the upper channel line has been contacted. Let's see if wave 4 holds it's length parameters.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/11bn71
TJ
ES/SPY 5-min: there is a diagonal downward which argues for monitoring the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/316C9vZR/
TJ
ES/SPY 5-min: the diagonal from the high was definitely 'leading' with lower lows. And it 'may' now be counted as an impulse, or it can just give way a lot lower in third waves.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sID2Drx4/
TJ
ES 1-Hr: the Ⓐ wave up has now been overlapped downward. Price at the daily pivot.
ReplyDeleteTJ
TJ, if the downward move has indeed begun, then it started at the 'right' time of year to line up with 1929 and 1987. Here's my crude chart:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0ouyocp9/
Also, here's a link to discussion of the Puetz studies. Sorry this isn't EW, but it's something interesting, and maybe useful as we approach the crash window.
https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/puetz-crash-window/
Thx. Interesting! TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: looks to me like the diagonal did convert to an impulse. Then, towards the last half-hour, wave ②. That could leave wave ③, down, for the overnight Sun-Mon.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0JVNAE2G/
TJ
why do you think circle 2 is likely complete?
DeleteGood, a nice trap 😊
DeleteNever said circle-2 was complete. Just in progress. Within limits it could extend higher or take longer. And often overnight gaps are parts of third waves. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ