One point to note: the current down wave since the high - which may be marked as a c/iii wave - is longer-in-time than the prior b/ii wave. See the ES 4-Hr chart, below. There are now more than the 8 bars than it took to make that b/ii wave.
Right now this is just a point to note. In other words, if downward overlap with a/i is avoided, then this would have to be wave iv to avoid concerns regarding degree violations. But, if downward overlap should not be avoided, then a change in degree may be possible and a larger downward wave in price might begin.
In the comments, we said the wave since the high might be countable as impulse, particularly if the down wave extends some in the overnight.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
SPY 15-min: besides being a pretty darn good call in real-time, note two things. 1) the 'typical' triangle target has been reached. 2) If it keeps going the triangle might be what Neely called the 'non-limiting' form a triangle where the breakout occurs more than 80% of the way into the pattern.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KvClCxZ0/
TJ
ES futures 4-Hr: now have downward overlap on a/i, likely making the up wave sequence just a,b,c. TJ.
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to wonder if we are not in a diagonal of some sorts from 4634.5
ReplyDeleteSo, the daily DOW futures (YM) had elements of an expanding diagonal I was watching, including necessary lengths and overlaps, and a 1.618 wave, as below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yDSj7Twm/
Since the diagonal, though, it appeared to make a common expanded flat correction. Regardless, it is a halting, awful decline. I'm not sure the ES did the exact same.
TJ
SPY 1-Hr: now has the downward overlap warning triggered, too.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Oi32wZ2c/
TJ
Excellent work. AAPL has similar pattern, stopped at the high of a/i. DJT broke down below August lows, appears to be an unfinished impulse. Thinking that the odds are shifting to your a-b-c labelling as you say.
ReplyDeleteThx. TJ.
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