With the information available today a,b,c is the best match so far as the market appears to be losing momentum by breaking the lower channel boundary on the ES 4-Hr chart below. Further it is diverging on the MACD.
In the event a larger wave ④ attempts to form we have provided the current overlap warning location. The main reason we would consider a larger or longer fourth wave is because of the long holiday weekend and not having as many market participants in these conditions. True third waves (i.e. IFF this were still iii) would be gaining momentum not seeming to lose it - just like wave ③ did in the same chart. But perhaps the volume is a fooler, so we're still cautious until the count clears up a bit.
Have an excellent start to your weekend and/or holiday.
TraderJoe
That's a very short wave (5), maybe 40 points where (1) was 80. I doubt the bulk of EOM cash came in on Friday, which was a semi-holiday.
ReplyDeleteQQQ has rallied from a deep OS & at the lower BB around 21 Aug to the upper BB & MACD has turned up. Usually, you get a couple of weeks of upside from that, or as Ira puts it, the SloSto embeds over the upper BB (altho it can scare you for a day or two by dropping halfway back to the midline).
QQQ: https://schrts.co/YwrbMvQv
Bullish factors: Apple new product announcement 11 Sep. Meta introduces VR 3 headset soon. Bearish factor: the momo boys piled out of Broadcom in a hurry when the AI sales failed to show up in force, and AVGO didn't rally much off its low. But maybe that crowd just rotates back into NVDA taking advantage of the unwarranted sympathy selloff.
That is why there is an alternate ④ which would not be quite complete yet. The low volume could be another bullish factor. TJ.
DeleteYou said: True third waves (i.e. IFF this were still iii) would be gaining momentum not seeming to lose it. ** That's a good point. **
DeleteWhat about the big picture count on the weekly chart since Jan 2022?
ReplyDeleteThe long term count was published in this post in June. It hasn't changed yet. It is now September.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/06/or-else-too-complex.html
The caveat is the alternate for the diagonal down is just a three-wave A-B-C down, and that might mean going up to 90% in a flat wave, or over the high again.
Keep in mind, this Special on the NDX - also done during June - more probably allows going over the highs again.
https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/06/special-on-ndx.html
It is definitely possible for different indexes to diverge at highs. Maybe the RUT doesn't go over the prior high. Maybe NDX does, but ES does not, etc. Stay loose and flexible.
TJ
Thanks Tj.
DeleteSPY 15-min: coiling .. coiling , coiling ??
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/E42ic7EI/
TJ
SPY 15-min: the "d" wave low has been undercut.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zQG08u3A/
TJ
SPY 15-min: Ⓑ wave low was also exceeded in cash (0.01) and in ES futures. May count as an impulse, especially if overnight the 'thrust' gets larger.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zouunj9N/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ