The ES weekly close only chart is below. It shows the potential case for entering a third minute wave of a Minor 1 wave lower.
There is no amount of intraday counting or squiggle counting that will make it happen. The market itself must do the work required, or not. Because there is one way to count the drop to the October low as a diagonal, then the wave (3)/(C) down - should that form - in its entirety would likely be an impulse wave.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thank you for the Big Picture take TJ. Looking inside the black C wave, what is your level of confidence in the circle iii and circle iv placements internal to it? Compared with the measurements supporting a view that the real circle iii could wind up being where black C sits on this chart? And if circle iii down WERE underway now, would you expect acceleration from here?
ReplyDeleteThe level of confidence of C, itself, is pretty high - about 65-75% - because it is just inside of 1.618 x A, and the instruction from The Elliott Wave Principle, "Draw a line from the start of A, to the end of B. Place a parallel copy on A, and that often shows where the C wave will end." Internally, the wave two and four have alternation within the C wave. So that fits, as well. And, yes, if in wave circle-iii, there should be acceleration in the next few days - as soon as tomorrow - but it might stall for a couple of days yet. TJ.
DeleteBut what about the option of waves 1,2,3 and now 4 then 5 to higher then 4607?
ReplyDeleteSuch a thing remains 'possible'. That's why only 65-75% odds in the prior answer. The other 25 - 35% remaining is for the impulse (i.e. A=1, B=2, C=3, etc). But, in the impulse case, one would think wave three would have made the 1.618 extension or even more, and it didn't. Further, it is impossible to worry about that count until / unless a new high is made over the prior high. The recent three-waves-up to circle-ii argues against it. If those waves were a 'five', not a three, the case would be stronger. Again. Not impossible, but just not on the drawing board right now. That is why I said the market must 'prove' a downward case right now. Counting won't do it. TJ.
DeleteThanks a lot
ReplyDeleteES 60-min: with about 93 bars for the wave of interest, there is a count that would look like this. There is the significant trough for ③ of 3, and a divergence on ⑤ of 3.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JiZhxgi5/
Perhaps the EWO is now headed back to the +10% to -40% level of the wave 3 trough near the zero line.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ