Here is the potential expanding diagonal we showed in the prior posts (The Rarest of All Birds, LINK) on the ES 1-Hr chart. So far, we are just waiting to see if the pattern resolves properly.
With 160 candles on this time frame, we have a proper expanding signature from the Elliott Wave Oscillator. The length of the fifth wave, (5), has just barely validated the pattern with a a 100% x (3) wave for the A wave.
Within the potential (5)th wave, the B wave is either completed downward, is forming a B wave triangle before the last wave of the pattern OR is forming an ending diagonal C wave.
In terms of targets within (5), wave C = A is one. IF a triangle forms, then C could equal the widest width of the triangle added to the breakout point. If an ending diagonal C wave forms there could be less than C = A within (5) with only marginal new highs.
The market does not like being informative at this point. Part of the fog is the difference between the way cash and futures count within the wave. Let's see what we can glean over the next few days.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Just an Idea, but it is 3:30 in the morning. :)
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/bn5Ux9b
Wont work, 4 would be longer than 2.
DeleteNow I would move to an impulse from yesterdays low were 1 is the extended wave with a shallow 2, currently in 4.
DeleteAlt would be todays high is 1 of a diagonal.
Impulse with extended 1st wave, 5 would be limited to roughly 26pts
DeleteES 1-Hr: doesn't 'have to' be over but could be. Consider the 'failure B' option.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/R3lAe1RZ/
TJ
SPY and ES now both have downward overlap. Looking done. Only way out of it that I could see would be an ending diagonal for the 5 wave, but not necessary. TJ.
DeleteAgree stopped and .618 so far.
DeleteSmall triangle forming? three minute SPY
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Vz6Uv9ZR/
MT .. triangles 'likely' form at the ends of patterns not the very beginning. This is very, very early in the decline sequence, and tends to indicate triangles won't form in the downward direction for a while. Usually, early on, when things looks like triangles, they will devolve into flats or double-combinations. TJ.
Delete..this is how the pattern devolved.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nIJqzqdf/
TJ
Was thinking that might be a small 4th wave triangle, as I'm struggling to see a clear five wave pattern from the top. Thanks.
Delete@MT - recommendation: 'use futures, struggle less". See link.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MP7GzjCQ/
Reason: they include price excursions and missing waves that are not seen in cash. That is a 'proven' fact, demonstrated thousands of times.
TJ
Thanks TJ! Will do
DeleteES 3-min: there is a new futures high, nearing 50% and the prior fourth wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nHZkH7j6/
Also, note the futures help with 'time considerations' as there are no (well many, many fewer) gaps to 'wonder' how much time they took.
TJ
ES 5-min: price has broken below a triangle. I would put a wave-counting-stop at the high, but it just means - if broken - the up wave would be a 'double-complex' not just a flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LszGzg8V/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ