The ES hourly chart is below with a count off of the high. It appears to be a 5-3-5-3-5 contracting diagonal followed by a Flat wave.
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| ES Futures - Hourly - Contracting Diagonal & Flat |
Within the contracting diagonal, the Fibonacci ruler shows wave v < iii < i. Wave iv < ii and wave iv overlaps wave i. Within the Flat, the lower degree Ⓑ wave down is shorter in time and price than the longest of either of the larger degree down waves, and waves Ⓐ and Ⓒ, up, are shorter in time and price than their prior higher degree up waves, so degree labeling appears to be adhered to.
We'll also note that the pattern shows divergence with the RSI on the subsequent lower lows (there are not sufficient candles on this time frame to use the EWO).
The degree labels shown above are relative and only for illustration. They will likely be adjusted later due to the small size of this overall pattern.
The invalidation level is shown as the hourly high from 18 April. From the daily chart, below, this is also the level of a new daily up - or green - fractal (shown).
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| ES Futures - Daily - Bands Constricting and Embedded Status Lost |
Price got down to touch the 18-day SMA ("line in the sand") on Friday, where it bounced. Note the daily Bollinger Bands are beginning to constrict significantly, and the daily slow stochastic (regular calculation) has lost its embedded status for the second day running.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Thank you for the update TJ, things could get interest here shortly with Advance GDP #'s due this week along with the anticipation of the upcoming Fed meeting.
ReplyDeleteWelcome. TJ.
DeleteThanks TJ. Fed meeting on May 3rd. Bots have learnt EW and they are playing in and around for all traditional counts guessing.
Deletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/first-republic-says-deposits-tumbled-40percent-to-104point5-billion-in-1q-but-have-stabilized-since.html
ReplyDeleteEvery time Spx hits approx 4110 to 4120
ReplyDeleteIt rebounds very fast.
One of these days, break down of same levels will lead to big sell off.
Interestingly if i draw a spx 3 month daily chart. Its h&s. 4195 2 feb, 3808 march 13 and 4169 18th April. Cash spx close below 4069 is required. Sorry not able to pull the chart.
ReplyDeleteSPY cash 30-min: below 408.16 SPY would qualify for its expanding diagonal as per the post on 4/20. There may be some 'flinging around' yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ejWejwSz/
ES daily may be trying to work its way down to the lower daily Bollinger Band.
TJ
SPY 30-min: yay! SPY has exceeded the level for a diagonal. ES now down to lower band & some.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rRSb1Aza/
TJ
ES-daily; by touching and exceeding the low daily band, the ES has also taken out the first down (red) fractal back - at black arrow. But not the second one back, yet. The second one is at 4,096.50 according to these quotes.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HkedhbKH/
TJ
ES-daily; there goes ES 4,096 breaking the second down (red) fractal, as well.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..here's a chart update showing that fractal exceeded lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4hLwgf7p/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ