If the NQ daily futures can be viewed as an expanding diagonal (see Friday's post link HERE), then it is possible the ES (two-day chart, below) might be in a double-zigzag pattern - which might still be internal to a triangle.
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We don't know yet. The upward structure in the ES is still unresolved, and the FOMC results on Wednesday will have a lot to say about it. So, the counts for the double-zigzag (black) and the alternate diagonal (red) are shown. The prior up wave Ⓦ was at the 78.6% level (Fibonacci ruler shown), and a marginal new high would still keep a triangle pattern possible.
We will have to see, but, at the present time the wave structures appear to be composed of overlapping threes and not impulsive fives. Further, price is still inside the Aug 2022 high. That could change, but it hasn't yet. The trend lines of the pattern are still tentative as there are only two touches on each side.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Thanks TJ.
ReplyDeleteDifficult to count on es.
Good read. https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/qqew_divergence_vs._qqq_shows_weak_liquidity/
ReplyDeleteDJIA 15-min: the Dow has a pretty clean up count as a ':5'. Today is the first-of-the-month money, and a higher high is possible though not required.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zFpoyf0B/
Watch the channel and any back-test/ subsequentfailure.
TJ
..nothing's perfect; nowhere is it stated as a 'rule' - just a guideline. And the over-bought RSI indicates wave three where it is, with divergence now. So, the count is 'indicator-based', not 'opinion-based'. TJ.
DeleteThere is a completed Ending Diagonal w/overthrow on the 15 min Spy Chart
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: there is RSI and volume divergence here. Nothing yet rules out a higher high, but count looks like it's getting mature.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3hrC3YKX/
TJ
More indications Joe, this could be an important juncture
Deletehttps://nimb.ws/zLC40s
DeleteI've never seen a triangle in a C wave position.
ReplyDeleteDJIA 15-min: the Dow is now well out-of-channel and may not have completed its first wave lower yet. Look for a back-test, and see if it fails.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uyCsEO47/
TJ
DJIA 30-min: this is the primary alternate I see for a new high yet today, but they're going to need to act quickly to avoid overlap. Overlap warning provided.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XU0baPU2/
TJ
YM futures invalidated the alternate count. Dow cash did not yet. TJ.
DeleteES on the 30 minute looks like a nice 1st wave extension impulse that dies on the EWO and in the channel.
ReplyDeleteLooks like flagging price action imho....
ReplyDeleteI wish I could get this on a 18 hour chart but not available. In my usual fashion, I may have rushed it.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/Afh0iun
Tj. Sell in may and go away. Seems like 3rd.
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: chart is a little behind (as usual) but ES has already hit 2.618 and slightly beyond. We haven't seen 'that' in a while. Also, near 62% retrace of up wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fRxZi2bk/
TJ
Might start to look to draw a channel to the down-side next. TJ.
DeleteSell the news before the news, tricky mofos
ReplyDeleteSPY 30-min: I don't want to get 'volume crazy' and try to analyze every detail of it but note the general increase in red activity. A good sign of institutional involvement.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/d881FaUJ/
..as opposed to yesterday when we showed volume 'drying up' on the rise.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ