The contracting leading diagonal shown in the prior post played out today with a significant wave lower. As a result, the lower daily Bollinger Band (first target) was hit, and in the process both of the first two prior down (red) fractals were exceeded lower. The daily chart of the ES futures is below.
Here are a few items to remember or note:
- The daily slow stochastic lost its embedded status as we commented on.
- There was an outside day up (ODU) yesterday and its low was exceeded today.
- This creates a trap for the bulls who were expecting upside follow-through to the ODU.
- Price is below the 18-day SMA and therefore has a negative bias, flipped from positive.
- The lower daily Bollinger Band has been contacted; first target reached.
- The daily Bollinger Bands are constricting; Smart Money may have taken some profits.
- Because the bands are constricting, immediate downside follow-through may not occur.
- The daily slow stochastic did not end up in over-sold territory today.
The next two targets likely are 1) overlap with the third green (up) fractal back from 22 March, shown with the purple arrow pointing down, and 2) the 100-day SMA.
The market is being a weird bird right now. It stalls, and stalls, and stalls some more. And then it lets go all at once. That probably has something thing do with trading inside the expanding diagonal in the cash SPY (for chart see LINK here). The cash and futures are trading a bit differently. That's OK for now.
After the close McDonalds, Alphabet and Microsoft all reported earnings beats. The concern at the moment is for the regional banks.
Have a good start to your evening,
TraderJoe
Curiouser and curiouser. YM and ES notched new lows but NQ not even close. These markets are behaving strangely...I wonder why...? Lol!
ReplyDeleteYup. It's about the composition of stocks right not. Who has banks, who doesn't? Who has tech, who doesn't? Who has home-buildiing in a brief rate downturn, etc. TJ.
DeleteHello Tj,
ReplyDeleteDo you have any views on Vix?
VIX is currently traveling sideways in its daily Bollinger Bands, much as the ES is. This is after a recent 'gap up' following the loss of the embedded status for it's daily slow stochastic.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CuxPNWRe/
The next targets would be 1) the prior up (green) fractal, and then, 2) the 100-day SMA. There could still be whippy action in the band if the current up wave decides to make a diagonal ('probably' expanding, but not sure).
TJ
There is the VIX dump, showing it is still traveling sideways in the band.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/13dcUXty/
TJ
ES 2-min: five waves up since 10:30 am.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Pz6eXlpM/
TJ
..now approaching 62% correction.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PAebKuJV/
TJ
ES .. low broke again. TJ.
DeleteES daily - reminder regarding the overlap warning of the up (green) fractal at 4,073.75 as per the chart below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RpFLXx1s/
TJ
SPY 5-min: now there is a 1.618 wave lower. Could go lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8Wbxc8BI/
TJ
..let's see if we get a channel count with a fourth and fifth wave. TJ.
DeleteES daily - there is 4,073.00 and the overlap warning shown earlier has been triggered. This makes any up counting that much more difficult (chart is behind for now).
ReplyDeleteTJ
Looks like there was another ED in the overnight on ES.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: 'looks like the channel count', but sometimes these fourth waves want to swing around one more time. Just be careful, and remember, price is below the daily Bollinger Band.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PyBWTBzZ/
TJ
Thanks TJ,
ReplyDeleteFirst republican bank trading halted at $5.42 and the low for today was $4.76. This is unusual as the i have never seen a trading halt notvat a lower price of the day. Any thoughts or suspicion?
Halt lifted. Something going on as earlier halt was not atvthe low price. Crypto gaining a lot momentum.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ