Perhaps we are getting a pre-CPI/PPI triangle on the hourly chart of SPY. If so, and if the triangle forms properly, it may indicate 'last wave up dead ahead'.
This is a reminder of the CPI report due out Wednesday morning and PPI report due out on Thursday.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
CED
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/h00Ntxn
So, in MES wave 3 = wave 1. While I suppose this is technically possible, then wave 4 is substandard. It is very small in comparison to wave 2 at 90%. So, it would be a good explanation for a failure at today's high as an alternate if that occurs.
DeleteP.S. the triangle's potential measurements stretch the eyebrows, as well.
TJ.
Maybe it was leading and now in 3 of 5.
Delete4171.75 of 4th April crossed. Hope to see resistance here.
ReplyDeleteThis now seems to be the most reasonable path to a fifth wave on SPY cash. Does not 'have to be' over yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/v06ow9Do/
TJ
Thanks Tj,
DeleteEU markets are at 52 week high.
CPI bar has now been defeated in SPY cash, YM futures, and ES futures (didn't check NQ yet).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kBmrDH93/
TJ
ES 5-min: only reasonable pattern, so far is expanding diagonal downward. So, that just means be cautious on a retrace. TJ.
ReplyDeleteYep! Counting the same. Now wave 1 over-lap.
DeleteSPY 1-hr: downward wave has broken wave ② - ④ trend line in 'less time' than wave ⑤ took to build. This is Confirmation Step #1.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EhWyPBv6/
Confirmation Step # 2 is breaking the wave ④ low.
TJ
Reminder: FED Minutes at 14:00 ET today. TJ.
ReplyDeleteWhat about an expanded diagonal from 4096.5? We would be in wave 4.
ReplyDeleteRight now the trend lines on such a pattern are parallel. I don't see anything wrong with this five-wave-sequence including a triangle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/81Sl8sv9/
But, if a lower low develops and holds sufficiently off the wave four low, then I'd have to say it's a good alternate.
TJ
Reminder: FOMC minutes are scheduled at the top of the hour. TJ
ReplyDeleteES 5-min: this is the downward diagonal I counted and why I indicated to be careful on the retrace. Up wave is now just about a long in time as the down wave. Can go longer and deeper if it wants.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ab8iZk1h/
TJ
I misplaced fourth wave. Thanks!
DeleteFrom CNBC:
ReplyDeleteWASHINGTON – Fallout from the U.S. banking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later this year, according to Federal Reserve documents released Wednesday.
Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee included a presentation from staff members on potential repercussions from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other tumult in the financial sector that began in early March.
Though Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said the banking sector “is sound and resilient,” staff economists said the economy will take a hit.
“Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent banking-sector developments, the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years,” the meeting summary stated.
TJ
SPY 15-min: alternate only; this would be the expanding diagonal. But the down wave doesn't look like a crisp zigzag. Clear invalidation level, though.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/l31rdhgg/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ