Today was the first trading day of the month and the new quarter. We have written many times about some of the sources for the automatic inflows on days like this (pension funds, company bonuses, dividend reinvestment plans, etc.). As the 4-Hr chart of the ES futures, below, shows, there were only relatively minor new higher highs which were not particularly impressive.
The MACD does not show a sign of rolling over, yet. The RSI is showing only the barest divergence at this time. The upper channel boundary and Fibo equality with the first wave set are dead ahead. None of that means anything unless prices actually turn lower in response. Sometimes an "up" Monday is followed by a "turn-around" Tuesday. We shall see.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks Tj.
ReplyDeleteWeekly bb and 100 weekly currently sitting at around 4200. There's a gap on spx there too. It's very obvious that could be the target, almost too obvious?
ReplyDeleteI've been watching for that gap to close for months lol. It's 4218 on the cash SPX.
DeleteGetting the thrust out of gold barrier triangle.
ReplyDeleteES is having a disagreement at the mid channel line.
DeleteSPY 1-hr: this is the "C wave in a wedge, divergence" interpretation. There is nothing fatal yet. A later channel interpretation 'might' be possible. The former with better with degree labeling. Pick-yer-poison.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nBOxOZcS/
TJ
ES 30-min: intraday wave-counting-screen with as much help as I can be at this point. There was a 'clear non-overlapping five-wave sequence' higher to the overnight high. We can not for certain say yet that a diagonal is not in formation, but it does not have to be.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RTuG59n9/
Trading below the red line at 4141.75 would tend to indicate a diagonal is not in formation. Everything comes down to whether we go over the high again or not before going under the low. And, nothing has categorically ruled out the larger channel count.
This chart merely indicates that a "countable" wave sequence exists to the futures overnight high. Readers of this blog should note the currently existing fractals and mark new ones as they occur. Readers should also note that if price is trading below the intraday 18-per SMA, then the intraday bias would be down, but then that fights with the daily bias, which is up, although price is currently in the area of an upper daily Bollinger Band, and a weekly one as well.
TJ
The level of 4141 was just broken lower, making a diagonal count extremely unlikely. TJ.
DeleteHere is that diagonal invalidation and the addition of the 100-per SMA on the intraday chart (green crosses).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1iAgVFn5/
TJ
now also below prior wave purple ii (italics), and 100-per SMA; which tends to rule out an expanding diagonal also. TJ.
Deleteprice has now traded below the S1 level and the prior wave (4) low in the above chart, increasing the likelihood of a turn by invalidating 'by-the-rules' the likely upward diagonal possibilities - just not the larger fourth-wave-in-a-channel, yet. Add S2 daily pivot to the chart, if you are following, and keep up with any fractals.
DeleteTJ
Here is the undercut of that prior wave (4) italics low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MZp2j9Ff/
On the watch-out for an outside key reversal day down, but lower prices and a lower daily close are still needed for that one.
TJ
prior day's low has been undercut. Lower close needed for outside key reversal day down. TJ.
Deletehere is the chart of the undercut of the prior day's low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GmDaGEr3/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ