Friday (as brief as it was) had a lower low day, too. On the ES daily chart the outside key reversal day down was not exceeded higher within the next two trading sessions, and so it was not a trap for the bears. The ES 4-Hr chart update is below. The situation with a possible continuation of the impulse wave with a fourth wave has not resolved itself, yet.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Optional New High |
Again, while a higher high can easily result, it has not yet. Nor is it required to do so. However, if it does, it will result with a better divergence on all three of the RSI, the MACD and Elliott Wave Oscillator. Readers of this blog should plot the ES 2-Hr chart and note the position of the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) for this wave of interest since the b wave low with 120 candles on the chart and compare it to The Eight-Fold-Path-Method as an exercise. This lower timeframe is the reason for the alternate count which now has slightly better odds at this point because of Friday's upward price movement.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend & holiday.
TraderJoe
Thanks TJ
ReplyDeletemore than 55B already induced by Fed again.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-u-s-banks-with-the-most-uninsured-deposits/
Thanks for the link. Sounds like 1/4 point increase in May than possible 3 1/4 point cuts to year end.
DeleteMore hike meand more bank failures as the banks have not hedged against bond markets when they were using helicopter money in covid times. The only thing is inflation will still be up.
DeleteI am wondering if we don't have a diagonal forming for the 5th wave.
ReplyDeleteLooks real weak even if it is stick saved here, one would have to be on failure watch.
DeleteSPY 5-min: I don't know if a new low 'will' form. But there appears to be a valid wedge here below 62% of a third wave, and, if a new low does form under the prior daily low, then very likely the (red) alternate count loses a lot of steam.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/amK7l5c6/
TJ
No cigar on the wedge break. So far three-waves in both directions. We don't 'know' the up wave is over yet.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Wew0SMK4/
TJ
SPY 5-min: opening gap was filled; can be some or most of five-waves-up.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KDHW7zFl/
TJ
Big picture view appears to be sideways consolidation. I think we have one more wave up.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ