Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Three Waves Each Way

As far as I can tell at the moment, there are only three waves in each direction, as per the ES hourly chart, below.

ES Futures - 1 Hr - Three Down and Up

These three waves in each direction could be part of a downward diagonal, or part of a triangle that points upward. It is very difficult to say, and the overall point change is minimal. One negative for an upward pointing triangle is the a-b-c of the larger (a) wave of a triangle is usually quite dramatic. This one is quite long, drawn out, and boring.

Further, at the middle of the day today, I asked readers to watch for a potential diagonal due to overlaps in the upward count of the ((C)) wave. That diagonal did play out, and is counted below.

ES Futures - 5 min - Diagonal
 

In the above count, wave (v) is less in price and time than wave (iii), which is less in price and time than wave (i). Wave (iv) is less in price and time than wave (ii), and overlaps wave (i). Note the wave degree markers in this chart are for illustration and chart clarity only.

We can't know for sure if the diagonal is leading or it is ending. A clue will be if the high is exceeded before the low. However, there is a fair probability the diagonal is ending, so another clue will be the speed of any decline.

Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe

17 comments:

  1. Thanks. Very helpful!

    EOD 4hr/5min - both TFs showing sideways range currently.

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3a3b5.png

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  2. Pre-open look 15min -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3a3Th.png

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    Replies
    1. Nyad up yesterday while SPX & NDX A/D lines were down. Watching today.

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  3. Not sure how the wave patterns will unfold, but I am now fairly confident of the 3900 upside target.

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  4. Good morning all. After the diagonal, up, either a triangle or flat wave. The triangle is already legal, but it could devolve lower into a flat.

    https://invst.ly/tgp5u

    TJ

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  5. I know that we typically look at the S&P500 but sometimes looking at other charts can help here is a possible diagonal on the Small Cap 2000. Problems: The chart is 180 instead of the 160-140 bars but the AO seems to show the correct signature and wave 2 and 4 are almost equal.

    CPCE chart was at 0.34 yesterday.
    https://imgur.com/qY2Gzpm

    Tim

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  6. At what point does TLT look interesting? 145 - 130

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  7. The SPX looks like a wedge, C. Providing the wave proportions are correct. What do you think.

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  8. ES 15-min; here's an update on the potential triangle / flat.

    https://invst.ly/tgrao

    I just watched Jeff Bezos 'Blue Horizon' spacecraft with Manakin Skywalker aboard both take-off and land without a hitch. It looks like this latest blue candle. Lol.

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..maybe futures are allowing cash to make a triangle.

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  9. I agree. The consolidation time presages a substantial directional break imo.

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  10. Potential triangle has, indeed, broken downward (devolved) into a flat wave at minimum.

    TJ

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  11. (CNBC)

    "The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency finalized a rule on Thursday that Wall Street’s largest banks have strongly opposed since its proposal in November. The OCC’s Fair Access to Financial Services rule was finalized a day after current OCC head Brian Brooks announced his resignation. The rule seeks to require banks to provide quantitative metrics proving the risks that lead them to deny services to potential clients."

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  12. Current observations 15min/4hr -

    https://funkyimg.com/i/3a4hu.png

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