In the Minor B wave scenario we posted over the weekend, leading to a potential Intermediate (X) wave, down, it is possible to see the Minor B wave as having ended at Friday's high. Today, there were lower highs (at the purple arrows). But, convincing lower lows are needed. In the SPX 30-min chart, below, the wave degrees have been downgraded one degree, reflecting the Minor B scenario.
During the day, there were five half-hourly bars that closed below the lower channel boundary. But, a convincing close below wave (iv) and overlap of wave (i) would still provide better confirmation of a larger down wave. There has been no downward overlap to this point.
I have seen some waves in cash where an upwards ending-diagonal fights its way along a lower trend channel boundary, so that would seem to be the best upward alternate at this time. Still, such a diagonal wave would have to stay inside the 3,852.2 level.
If the market only begrudgingly makes lower lows, then perhaps it is trying to make a downward diagonal. So far, the downward waves have been slow and choppy.
If there is a gap direction tomorrow, it could help provide some clarity. Meanwhile, this is a good time to remain calm, patient and flexible.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Joe- I am not sure if you are a sub to Neely's forecasting service- But his most recent weekly and monthly forecast is quite bullish(Revised). I would guess he is projecting 4000ish SNP.
ReplyDeleteDoes that alter your outlook if you've read it?
Thanks in advance.
I have the service and frankly I'm confused as to why he suddenly changed. Seemed to me he was expecting a top around this time. His idea that "last week ended bullish, so expect further upside" makes no sense. Bull traps (if last week was) should look very bullish!
DeleteI currently have no EW subscriptions.
DeleteTJ
Neely has a wide projection with no numbers. TJ is doing the count on a day to day basis. If you look at neely's last projection, yes it does look like 4k and we'll likley get there after this next sell off.
ReplyDeleteVery tough to count waves with machine driven price action. How does it end?
ReplyDeleteGood morning all; bit of a mess this a.m. NQ has lower highs, lower lows. RUT may be working on new ATH; ES flailing about in the middle.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Looks like price once again consolidating at the round numbers ahead of yet another grind higher.
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr; the triangular 'shape' (not actual triangle yet), suggests that "following the fractals", whether higher or lower, will deliver the best wave count. At the moment, downward counts and upward counts are 'both' still on the table. The hourly RSI has given only one back-test & fail clue, so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tfqvx
TJ
ES 1-Hr lower high, lower low; and overlap with wave (i), up. Not so good for the bulls.
ReplyDeletewatch Tech
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr .. I would now draw a parallel like this as a "base channel".
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tfrg1
TJ
Observations on 4hr -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3a1Ss.png
ES 5-min; from the low, there appears to be five-waves-up. Watch for a b wave down (possibly a triangle), and a c wave up. Chart below.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tfu0s
It 'might' be the deep retrace of a diagonal, but it does not have to be. A key will be exceeding either the 3,800 high, or the 3,767 low.
TJ
..triangle no longer valid; flat is
DeleteES 5-min; likely into the c wave of a Flat, or 'running triangle', now.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/tfu99
TJ