Our count from yesterday had us counting most recently in the upward direction, possibly looking for a wave iv, up. For a downward count, we highlighted that the prior wave ii high would have to hold. It did not. So, shorter-term we were headed in the right direction; a little longer-term, the market went farther than a key wave marker we outlined as we clearly said that our posture was flexible.
From the opening, it was pretty clear that the Presidential Election Cycle was kicking in. The so-called Smart Money (or possibly PPT, on this day) was not about to allow anything less than an all-time new high on this day of importance. Retail may have joined in on the further prospect of more stimulus, and the good news of a peaceful transition. Perhaps today will be near a top - or be one. Perhaps not. At the moment, there is not a good clear sign of it.
At the highs, the ES ran into the upper daily Bollinger Band with the daily slow stochastic in only an overbought condition - not embedded. Then, it backed off a tad. Meanwhile, the daily NQ futures closed over their upper daily Bollinger Band - also with the daily slow stochastic only in an over-bought condition.
From the closer-in the viewpoint, the ES futures on a 30-min time-scale appear to have three waves up from the recent low with 125 candles on the chart.
That's about all we can say at the moment except for some measurements. In the NQ, the up wave iii/c is more than 1.618 x wave i/a. As you can see above in the ES, the wave is shorter. Regardless, for a continued impulse wave there should be a fourth wave that tries to attack the lower channel line at some point. (Some of it might happen in the overnight).
Further, the EWO is not showing a fourth wave signature just yet. So, patience, caution and flexibility remains the strategy.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Its a bull market...!
ReplyDeletehttps://i.ibb.co/9gfYwJT/20210120-S-P500.png
Your wave 3 is the shortest wave.
DeleteIts, not measure it, see comment here:
Deletehttps://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com/2020/09/25/2020-sep-25/#comment-241
Ridiculous....!
ReplyDeleteObservations on daily that [may] be driving lower TFs -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3ad35.png
Greywaver, Thanks to you for all the info you provide.
DeleteBack to "ramp & camp" mode. What makes this market brutal for bears is that even formerly bearish reversal signals are now being routinely negated. It may also be true that their absence may not necessarily be probative. We are seeing unprecedented things in the current price action. Still expecting a tag,vat the very least, of 3900.00
DeleteHow did you add moving average to rsi? I use trading view as well.
DeleteBill - On tradingview, click on Indicators, type in Snabbel. You will have a few choices. Try the RSI-Snabbel, I think that's the indicator I use. It should give you RSI and mov avgs to select.
DeleteBill - better yet, email me at greywaver73@gmail.com. I will email back the Pine editor script (I did a number of adjustments to the Snabbel indicator). You can open the editor, paste the code, and save. Then you can adjust colors, etc. :o)
DeleteGood morning all. Futures were higher overnight. They have since fallen off a bit and it looks like the classic fourth wave signature is being made on the EWO. So, it could get bumpy in here; form a triangle, or go down to hit the lower channel line.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tjf7o
TJ
..also, there are still about 155 candles, now, on the 30-minute chart. So we are in an area ripe for a fourth wave, if one will hold. Sometimes they don't and it tells us a lot about the market if they do not.
Delete👍 NAAIM AT 107% and $CPCE rising now.
DeleteHi TJ, can I say there is a possibility for this up wave to morph from impulse to ending diagonal? For it to happen, 4th wave will change into 2nd wave. But the subsequent 3rd, 4th and 5th waves will have small price magnitude.
DeleteMorning look on 2hr -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3adHx.png
👍
Delete1 hour BTC triangle is a bust. To flat on the bottom for me.
ReplyDeleteNasdaq is trading above the Bollinger Band for the 2nd straight day on a RSI divergence - and if you look at the RSI from the September high it's a big divergence
ReplyDeleteES 30-min; noon update. The ES has contacted the lower channel line. Can go lower. It is not at 38% x iii, yet. And, yes, it could bust and the whole structure form a larger contracting diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tjief
TJ
Here is a further update. The red labels are if a fourth wave wants to become a little longer in time, and a little longer in price to better equalize cash with the futures. (Doesn't have to, but certainly could).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/tjjyv
TJ
!NAAIM Now at 113% and margin debt at ATH. This won’t end well.
DeleteWonder how much longer the bull will feel lucky (thinking of the line by Dirty Harry)
DeleteBradley turn next Thursday and end of the month, it may hold into February.
DeleteHussman's latest posted 1/16:
A week ago, our primary measures of market internals shifted to a negative condition. That shift was a bit surprising, because it was driven by components that capture market behavior across “debt securities of varying creditworthiness.” Interestingly, those debt-sensitive components were also the first to shift negative at the 1987 and 1929 peaks. The equity components shifted later. I often describe unfavorable shifts in market internals as being driven by “deterioration” and “divergence.” In 1987 and 1929, the ascent to the bull market peak was so steep and indiscriminate that there was little “divergence” in the equity components at the highs. Instead, the equity components shifted only after a sharp, near-vertical initial loss.
... Put simply, the present constellation of market conditions creates the potential for the sort of “trap door” situation we observed in March.
He always has a good section on Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210118/
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete