After making very overlapping waves in the overnight, the ES futures this morning made a lower daily low. Cash followed suit. Both cash and futures overlapped the wave (i) location. The hourly ES futures are shown below.
|ES Futures - 1 Hr - Lower Low|
So, the issue now becomes whether or not there is a triangle at the lower left. If there is, there are ways to count downward. Diagonal and impulse possibilities are available. Neither would be correct if price exceeded the current wave (v) high, though.
If, however, the 4 Jan low is the low of the pattern, there might be a way to add in 'an additional wave', meaning this long drawn out choppy wave could be a fourth wave with a further higher high to come. It can't be ruled out at this point as there are insufficient downward overlaps.
Further lower lows - before a higher daily high - would tend to rule in the impulse or diagonal downward.
Have a good start to the evening,