Promises, Promises

Over the next 48 hours, you are going to hear promises from the convention, and from Central Bankers around the world on how they are going to make your life better. The printing of the free money is sure to pump up something. Right now it is assets, like stocks & homes & Gold. That's all good, as long as they stay up there. That always lasts forever, right? They won't advertise the negatives when they inevitably come (like proposals to cut back on Social Security, etc.).

Readers of this blog know that when the ES E-Mini futures closes up over the daily Bollinger Band price is getting ahead of itself. It did that today, and while there can be several consecutive closes over the band, one broker we know, Ira, says the one thing he 'never' recommends doing is buying over a daily band. Well, here we are.

The wave count can remain the same with two modifications. Oh, I am counting the same two zigzags upward that I have been, but I am changing the overall labels to reflect Intermediate (W), (X) and (Y).  The change reflects  the character of today's acceleration - whether it reverses here or not.

ES Futures - Daily - Still Two Zigzags Upward

I am also looking at the second Minor A wave, up, of (Y), as a contracting leading diagonal that started this grinding wave upward.

We need to see solid reversal candles, and overlap of wave minute ((i)), downward, as the first step in confirmation that a retracement wave is occurring. As of today's future's close, there is no such reversal candle. Sentiment is getting a bit stretched with the CNN Fear-and-Greed model more heavily into the greed zone. We still need to see what the daily put-call ratio is, but yesterday it was 0.42, and may be lower today. Interestingly, the $VIX did not make a new low today.

Have a good start to your evening,

TraderJoe