Yesterday, the ES daily futures made an outside key reversal day down. I gave some pretty clear criteria, such as the retrace had to hold the high. It did not - in what the paraphrase of Ira Epstein's Guidelines calls, "a trap for the bears". Prices made four waves up that we could count overnight and today, and one we have a question about, and that is the very last wave, as shown below.
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| ES Futures - 5 Min - One (1) or Done! |
Because there was a very long mid-afternoon triangle wave, the upward wave 'may' count best as A, B, C to sub-micro wave (1). We showed a count of five waves up in the previous post's comments - which you can review at this LINK. Completion of the up wave may be needed before a significant downward retracement starts.
Right now a 'potential' diagonal is only that. Price needs to go up again through the high tomorrow, and then downwardly overlap wave (1). Readers of this blog should know the drill by now. Of note, the last downward zigzag attained a level of >78%, which seems about right for a diagonal, but, of course we simply do not know the downward wave is over, nor do we know that a new high will be made tomorrow, although one is more likely than not. The bias of the market is up, as price is over the 18-day SMA.
However, if wave ((4)), above, is exceeded lower at any time, it is likely a partial or full retracement of today's upward wave would be underway.
With today's higher high, it likely that the daily count is in the 3rd Minor wave as I have mentioned in previous posts.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
can you help me or post link to where i can reference the "3rd minor wave"? thanks
ReplyDeleteSee the second chart and discussion on Mon 8 Aug
DeleteTJ - Quick question:
ReplyDeleteIf Im reading your SPX cash chart from yesterday correctly, it looks like the "X" wave becomes the June 16th low. Using an 0-X TL (similar to 0-2 or 0-B), nearly all of the abc up to "Y" falls below it. Would that be seen as an issue?
Thanks
Addendum: I think you had two options X/2 then Y/3. Thus, the 0-X TL would be the same as 0-2. So, either Y/3 would be nearly all below it.
DeleteThanks
It is only an issue for an impulse wave. We are counting corrective waves upward. Good question.
DeleteThanks. So, would that suggest the 1,2,3 labels would not apply, only the W,X,Y?
DeleteIt would seem (perhaps incorrectly) that even with a diagonal, third wave would honor the 0-2 TL.
DeleteI have personally found the characteristic of breaching the acceleration price channel is the most reliable signal for correctly identifying third wave price action, fwiw....
DeleteCorrection to above regarding 0-2 TL on diagonals. With a longer 1st wave and shallow 2, can easily see 0-2 violated by 3rd wave. The depth of the 2nd wave correction looks to be key.
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ReplyDeleteUnlike most observers, I thought the gap closure had the potential of being a very bearish signal. The condition was that price would have to reverse sharply after a fill and that simply did not happen. The fill now has to be viewed as bullish. A visit of at least 3400 is in the cards imo..
ReplyDeletePerhaps one possible scenario.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/VA4GFk2
Comment(s) welcome.
Looks good- but how about the internal labels for your iii and vth?
DeleteI have the same count but that slightly differs. If someone can show me how to do charts on trading view etc- I can post it.
DeleteBasically the difference is- On the FOMC day back on 6/10 I have that small 5th wave as failed 5th or truncated.
Then a Big 2nd wave that ended on June 15-22 ( fractal wise Biggest drop since March).
Now in (i) of iii- which seems complete with 5 subdivisions.
First day I joined- I made a remark to TJ that Mkt was going to all time highs because of AD line ( I joined around June 1st).
Comments welcome.
It looks like wave iii-circle is the shortest wave, which I believe is a no-no. Hard to tell without measurement.
DeleteIt's not 3 but expanded flat after 1 then we started 3. Might have completed 3 or abt to
DeleteExpanded running flat
DeleteAndy - if you read the post, I did the measurement for you. :o)
Deletejacksparrow - if expanded flat, then 0-2 TL is broken by third wave I believe.
Mentioned that in post as well. :o)
Thanks for comments.
jacksparrow - if I understand your exp flat, I believe you'd want 5 waves down in "C". Looks more like 3 waves there (to me at least). :o)
DeleteThanks again.
one of the biggest fallacies in elliot wave imo is that c waves need to 5 waves. zig zags and double zigs very common
DeleteMove your 4 to the first low after B high it becomes 5 waves
Deleteovernight we made a ld in futures to downside
ReplyDeleteThis morning's rally measures like a contr. diagonal. Fully retraced +. If correct, would appear to be ending.
ReplyDelete