Some major cash averages closed higher today. Among them were the Dow, the NADAQ, and the S&P500. The Russell and the NY Composite closed lower. The 4-Hr chart of the ES futures is updated below. The potential diagonal remains in tact.
Note that internally it was - preliminarily - more declines than advances again today - on supposedly an up day. Then too, the MACD divergence grew worse, as well. Some internal counts were shown in yesterday's comments. The market - as measured by the SPY - made five waves up today. So, an a wave is shown above. By the futures settle, the market did not determine if the a wave was done yet or not. Only downward overlap on 3,374 will do that. So, the a wave can extend some if it wants to.
We will note how many bars are are included in waves (i), and (iii). While we expect wave (v) to be shorter in time than (iii), these are four-hour bars, and so it may still be a while. And it may be whippy.
The up wave in the futures exceeded 78.6% of the down wave. This most likely means the fifth wave up, (v), is confirmed. Therefore, invalidation for wave (v) moves up to the wave (iv) low in the futures.
After the close I added this updated chart on GOLD, to go along with the long term presented a few days ago.
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| Gold Futures - 4 Hr - Channel Broke |
The upward parallel containing the ((W))-((X))-((Y)) wave broke lower. The next thing to watch for is to see if a full five-wave down move is made coming out of the channel. It hasn't happened yet.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
An additional chart was added to the main post after the close.
ReplyDeleteAs an ending diag to ((c)), shouldnt it fully retrace to ((b))? If so, that would put it precariously close to 2. Any overshoot could spoil the larger diag and suggest Y instead?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Yes on both counts.
DeleteWhat am I missing here - ((b)) is near 3200, 2 is near 3000, yes?
DeleteSuggesting Y instead means W-X-Y from March low?
@Joe M .. yes. But in today's market 200 pts can be two overnight sessions. So, it will need to be watched when the time comes.
DeleteWhat's labelled as 3 is almost exactly .382 of 1
ReplyDeleteJoe -
ReplyDeleteWhen I commented last night, I had lost track of where 2 was, so your question was valid, lol. My bad.
TJ - but the overall question still remained, which you addressed. And yes, price could get there quicker than we think should selling pick up in earnest.
Sorry for the "precarious". :o)
Here is a 4-hr chart update.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rvvsa
TJ
Looks like the fifth wave down occurred on 4-Hr GOLD, as noted.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rvw2b
TJ
SPX cash is now over the prior high; 'minimum' diagonal completion; can go further.
ReplyDeleteES, too ..
Delete