Thursday, August 6, 2020

Little Doubt of a Fifth Wave Up

The chart below of the daily ES futures leaves little doubt of a fifth wave up. The grinding squeeze into the wedge has now popped up over the upper diagonal line, in what is usually termed the "throw-over" of the wedge.

ES Futures - Daily - Five Waves Up

One might want to look at the tepid advance-decline statistics and (actually more down than up on such an up day).

Because we do not know the up wave is over, it is possible to count the last upward wave in this manner, recognizing that the minute ((c)) wave can extend some if it wants to. Still price closed over the upper daily Bollinger Band today, with an embedded slow stochastic.

ES Futures - 2 Hr - Wedge Count

The employment report is tomorrow and that is sure to cause some volatility.

Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe

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14 comments:

  1. 6QAugust 7, 2020 at 2:07 AM

    Thanks ET.

    Same that happened during the period of June 1th-8th, the inappropriate comments have returned once again. A good indicator of that the top is near.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousAugust 7, 2020 at 7:58 AM

    https://imgur.com/jr9zUzL

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. RustyPAugust 7, 2020 at 9:12 AM

      The chart on the right has been changed to a diagonal (as there is overlap) rather than three waves.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderAugust 7, 2020 at 9:52 AM

      The chart on the right has been changed to a diagonal (as there is overlap) rather than three waves. Also, please 'do not' republish my copyrighted material.

      Delete
    3. TachyonAugust 7, 2020 at 11:36 AM

      The break from the possible wedge not at all convincing, so we may not be quite done...

      Delete
  3. BBRiderAugust 7, 2020 at 11:52 AM

    Gold looks like a completed diagonal and backtest on a 30 min.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Roberto MattheusAugust 7, 2020 at 12:00 PM

    DXY double bottom held so far

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TachyonAugust 7, 2020 at 12:24 PM

      Yep! At long term support, and the short dollar a remarkably crowded trade it would appear...

      Delete
    2. Roberto MattheusAugust 7, 2020 at 12:38 PM

      yes and gold is way over crowded

      Delete
  5. Elliott_TraderAugust 7, 2020 at 1:18 PM

    ES 30-min; I have to ask the question based on almost irreconcilable overlaps, are we making an expanding triangle for a larger minute ((b)) wave in time?

    https://invst.ly/rq11q

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderAugust 7, 2020 at 1:46 PM

      ..and the (d) leg is 1.618 x the (c) leg.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderAugust 7, 2020 at 2:57 PM

      ..so there is again clear half-hourly overlap on the (b) wave. That leaves the expanded triangle, and the roughly equal and opposite (i), (ii), up, shown in red.

      https://invst.ly/rq2aa

      Trading below the 78.6% Fibo level tends to tilt the odds in favor of the triangle. The clear invalidation level for the triangle is a new higher high.

      The two counts should be considered "equal and opposite" at this time with perhaps an edge given to the (i), (ii) count for the bullish bias and embedded slow stochastic.

      It's a matter of odds and not certainties at this point.

      TJ

      Delete
  6. JoeMAugust 7, 2020 at 4:51 PM

    I think it only stands to reason that this is P5, P4 expanding triangle ended in March - heading for the blow off top which should be fast and furious.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderAugust 7, 2020 at 4:56 PM

      ..and P5 is longer in price and time than which Intermediate degree wave?

      Delete

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