Two days ago, in the last post, five-waves down were shown in the S&P500 cash index. Over the last two days, there has been an up movement with a higher high today, likely making at least an a-b-c sequence higher. The Dow's chart, below, shows that sequence as well as any other. I include the Dow chart today because many are or were having difficulty counting it.
|DJIA Cash Index - 30 Minutes - Three Waves UP|
As far as I can tell, and keeping all the degrees of the labels correct, the Dow made a leading diagonal lower which can be counted as an (a) wave. Then there was a flat (b) wave up. This was followed by a sharp (c) wave down. The new (c) wave down proves the Dow's leading diagonal (a) wave, and preserves the meaning of a "zigzag" even though the (b) wave of the zigzag is a flat wave. That is allowed by the rules.
I don't know, but could surmise, that to keep the Dow and the S&P in synch, these three waves could be the first three waves of a larger potential diagonal. To keep the degrees correct, then these three waves would comprise the larger degree wave ((i)) down. The three waves up to today in both the Dow and the S&P would be a larger degree second wave ((ii)) because this set of waves takes more time than any previous correction.
Whether the upward correction is over or not depends on exceeding the (b) wave lower. Why? Yes, the Dow made a wave today that can be counted as an ending diagonal. If it is, then fine! But, if not, then the very same diagonal could also be a leading diagonal wave i, of a larger (c) wave of a higher ((ii)) wave.
There is nothing I can do about this amount of nondeterminism in the count. This is the true nature of alternates in Elliott Wave: the same exact wave structure can have two opposite meanings in the current context. Perhaps volume, advance/declines and/or tomorrow's gap direction can help separate the two scenarios, but at this point all we can say is that the "minimum" retracement needed for a second wave has been made.
Yes, the market is messy at the moment. We can see how people might throw up their hands at a wave count. We are trying to use the relative degrees of the waves - and time as well as price - to keep us on track.
Have a good start to your evening.