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| Russell 2000 Futures (RTY) - 4 HR - Potential b Wave or Diagonal |
There is no doubting that the Russell has made a diagonally shaped wedge (bullish falling wedge?) as of the end of the day. In doing so, the wedge counts best as all-three-wave sequences. And this wedge is shorter using the measuring ruler than the first wave 1, down. So, while this wave could qualify as a newer sub-wave i of a larger trend based on price, alone, it can not do so based on time. The wave takes longer in time than wave 1, therefore. Interestingly, based on time, it may also not count as a b wave - precisely because as a lower degree b wave can not take more time than the first wave.
Therefore, the only way to count this wave and maintain adherence to degree requirements is this way.
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| Russell 2000 Futures (RTY) - 4 HR - Waves Must Be of the 'Same' Degree |
Think on the implications of this and we'll try to work more on the other indexes. This is just the first one that made sense. These first three waves (a)-(b)-(c) may be the start of a larger diagonal. We'll have to see.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
thanks joe. so another 3 wave structure where we were looking for 5 off of a high (October and may). waiting on diagonals to form a count is not high probability. ill keep checking back.
ReplyDeletei believe there is a valid diagonal ending at grey i in chart above. thanks
Delete..not if 'a' is not a lower low.
Deletemarc .. please see my comment at 9:05 pm, in regards to 'the more sinister count'; important.
Deletevery informative post. thank you, Joe. clears up something for me I had been doing wrong. would have thought that first chart with the gray b was alright.
ReplyDeleteWelcome.
DeletePositive Divergence.....Pointing higher
ReplyDeletehttps://i.imgur.com/cmGPDsp.png
On the bearish side sentiment is much like early December before the waterfall. Furthermore the VIX curve is as flat as a billiard table indicating no real fear. On the bullish side we've had the largest equity outflows this week since the week before Xmas. So equities right now pose a mixed bag under the hood. We got the bounce off the right areas late in the session to end what I was calling a larger B wave. Let's see if we can validate that with some more upward action on Friday. Remember Armstrong's weekly numbers (25372 & 25207). If the DOW closes below both those levels on Friday I would say any upward action is likely to be very limited and the market will sit with a predominantly posture. On the other hand if the DOW can close a couple of hundred points higher on Friday then a potential a-b-c downward count from the highs as ET has just masterfully shown us becomes more prescient.
ReplyDeleteShould read " … (25372 & 25207). If the DOW closes below both those levels on Friday I would say any upward action is likely to be very limited and the market will sit with a predominantly BEARISH posture.
DeleteJoe, I thought about the two counts above, the one correct the one wrong. The reason the first is incorrect is because the b wave went under correct. say the b had chose to respect the low of the 1 and been just as long in time. Would that have allowed a gray b, count?
ReplyDeleteNo. Gerald. There is nothing wrong with a lower b wave after three waves up. You really need to read your basic Elliott Wave books.
DeleteI know a b has option to go under. that is an expanded flat.
DeleteRight.
DeleteNever fear Trump tweets that he will add 5% tariffs on Mexico in June, and ES futures make a new low.
ReplyDelete..futures as low as approximately -26, so far.
DeleteMaybe his put options are in the red :) Thanks for the update, I'm hoping for a strong close!
Deleteyw, Bill.
DeleteI think I can find a way for the ES futures to bounce up and down, once more and make a complete diagonal. Chart to follow.
ReplyDeleteHere's the way to make a 5-3-5-3-5 Diagonal in the ES 4-hr futures; 'only' the time signature is off, and just by a tad.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/axdqx
TJ
Joe, why is this count not wrong then?
ReplyDeletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2019/05/three-more-headaches.html
The third chart. we have i. then a. b goes over. takes more time than i.
Because (a) is larger than i, and (b) and (a) are of the same degree. So (b) can be any size in relation to (a), but remains smaller than it anyway. Gerald, you are becoming very very confused for some reason. First, you need to learn to use the degree symbols, and use them religiously. Further, if you do not use the same degree symbols I use in futures posts, then I will simply cease to answer.
DeleteGo to this link, for wave degree basics, and 'learn' it.
Elliott Wave Degrees
TJ
Joe, I have been to that link. It does not tell me what you just did, though. That because (a) is more than i in time (b) is allowed to be more in time than i. that is what helps. I could never find that on stockcharts. Thank you for counting for us.
DeleteNo. Gerald. Why did you pick i? Not (a). That is what helps. You need to recognize which symbols are 'the same degree'.
DeleteSo that there is no mistake, here is the 'more nefarious' nested 1-2-(i)-(ii)-i-ii count, if all heck breaks loose. Please note that it works price-wise and time-wise. This is marc's 'more sinister' count.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/axdup
TJ
right on cue thanks
Deletei dont know if it will be proven right, but, its a perfect illustration of why we use wave degrees. How often do we see others have nested counts which we know are not going to play out? very.
DeleteThis is a count that may play out, and if you had been following it all along then you would have continued to watch 2nd waves "fit" the size and time requirements - which is not usually the case. Thanks Joe
ET that count would be more convincing if it worked on the DOW. Unfortunately blue i is longer than red (i) on the DOW which is a degree violation. I've tried to see if the DOW can match that count slightly differently but it's beyond me.
Deletelook at futures 1 2 then diagonal for i i believe
Delete@Billy - this count works on the Dow futures; it is still only 5-3-5 at this time. There is a "running triangle" for iv on the way down. Wave (ii) is a FLAT, and wave (iv) is a sharp for alternation. Wave (iv) does not overlap (i). There is a 'guideline only' violation of wave (iv) not overlapping any part of wave (ii). That is not a 'rule' - just a 'guideline'.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/axjjf
TJ
first running (b) down is bigger than all of 1 down, otherwise this count looks really good on DJI TJ with alternation and all
Delete@Erik, (b) is not necessarily bigger. This is a four-hour chart. It is possible (b) is shorter on a smaller time scale, and then there is a flat. In other words, the actual count is (w)-(x)-(y) where (y) is that flat. Because what is curious on the Dow, is the up wave 'can' be counted as a five. In this case I have used (a), (b), (c) for convenience only. Very hard to say - can't find another way to count it.
DeleteYes truly looks like 5 waves up likely a C thanks
DeleteTJ the running triangle isn't there on cash index, therefore the only way to count DOW imho is this:
Deletehttps://invst.ly/axlkt
As you've mentioned recent down leg to much time for B wave or contracting diagonal, so maybe it will morph into an expanded diagonal??
Futures can also be counted abc?
Deletehttps://invst.ly/axlog
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DeleteI think this also works to sync cash and futures if not abc sry for all the posts:
Deletehttps://invst.ly/axlww
@Erik .. the only purpose of this chart is to show that the running triangle is most definitely there on cash May 8 - May 10th.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/axosd
So, the counts can be similar. I will grant there are also 'OTHER' ways to count the down move. But I really need to move on from that to focus on current waves.
TJ
Sorry marc, still don't follow what you mean.
ReplyDeleteJoe,
ReplyDeleteusing futures you can add ((i)) and ((ii)) another nest is valid (ive been using nasdaq nq)
Russell now has 3 > 1.
ReplyDeleteRussell futures also have 18-SMA bear cross under 100-SMA. Elliott Wave Oscillator also at a new low.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/axm10
TJ
Longer term, the Russell 2000 daily 200ma has crossed below the 400ma and price is below both: http://schrts.co/tVfzaKPs
DeleteEeew . . . that's not a good look.
Deletejoe
ReplyDeletei can count diagonal complete on ndx from ATH
So, I switched last night from thinking of diagonals when the time frames got longer on the major indexes. I, personally, will hesitate to make a 'count complete' determination while the daily slow stochastic is still embedded. See below.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/axnmv
TJ
Further, I'd like to see a couple of closes (at least) below the lower daily Bollinger Band.
DeleteWeekly S&P 500 slow stoch. still pointing down. 100ma coming in at around 2700 with lower bb just below that. https://invst.ly/axnqt
Delete@JC .. nice job! Keep it up!
DeleteThank you ET. Appreciate your hard work!
DeleteJust an observation. To date, the move down from beginning of May can be contained within parallel lines. :o)
ReplyDeleteAgree, so far.
DeleteBeginning at 01:10, Art Cashin : "they rarely bottom on a Friday".
ReplyDeleteRarely Bottom on Friday
TJ
With less than 2 hours to go in the month, the monthly cash S&P 500 has a bearish engulfing candlestick and is near the 18 ma. with the slow stoch. trying to turn down. Confirmation and follow thru will be necessary. https://invst.ly/axogf
ReplyDeleteI sort of like a bounce from here, judging by USDJPY 15m chart. Looks like a 5 wave move since yesterday from 109.8. But as wave 3 goes it could just be in extensions as usual.
ReplyDeleteDOW is the first one to break the morning low.
ReplyDeleteES is the second to break the morning low.
DeleteAuthentic head and shoulders pattern targeting 23700 … check.
ReplyDeleteBacktest and rejection of the neckline at 25200 … check.
Closing the week out below Armstrong's weekly bearish reversal numbers of 25372 & 25207 … check.
Embedded stochastic … check.
Steepening decline … check.
ET, having said all that, can you spot any possible ending contracting diagonals (ECDs) into the close? I was leaning towards a gap down next week but some those closing patterns are looking like a possible ECD and thus a potential gap up for a breather.
nice work today joe
ReplyDeleteThx marc.
Delete