When the cash market only is considered, an impulse wave with alternation, and including a 1.618 extension in the third wave can be counted.
|S&P500 Cash Index - 5 Min Close Only - Likely Impulse|
There is no overlap between waves iv and i, or between waves 4 and 1. The 1.618 extension is located in the third wave, and the fourth wave can be considered a Flat wave that alternates with the second wave sharp (or zigzag) wave. Within wave 3, wave iv can be considered a flat wave that alternates with wave ii because wave iii is longer than wave i at the location shown.
There are a few things not to like - like the almost too exact fit to the channel. But, this is cash, and it is harder to count any diagonal in cash than it is in futures. The cash market has markedly different measurements than the futures market does. Further, it is tough to find 'three-waves-up' in the a wave of 4, but that wave was not exceeded to the upside, so it, too, may be a portion of a flat from 3.
The ES futures closed below the lower daily Bollinger Band today - which only happens about 5% of the time. And, the Russell did too, but the Russell also hit the 100-day SMA. So, it would be best to see if "five-waves-up" from here turns the short term trend in cash.
Have a very good start to the evening.