Today, the ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures made another lower low day that continues the down trending wave. In mid-afternoon, a further lower intraday low was made - but it was marginal and may be the b wave of a flat correction. We were able to count "five-waves down" in the form of an expanding diagonal. Tomorrow might start with the c wave of the flat.
For today, I want to show you some weekly U.S. equity stock indexes that have not made new all time highs.
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| U.S. Equity Indexes - Weekly - With No Newer All Time Highs |
Each of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Wilshire 5000, the NYSE Composite Index and Russell 2000 have to this point failed to make a new all-time higher high. The most concerning is the Russell 2000, followed by the NYSE Composite Index.
Have a good start to the week.
TraderJoe
thanks joe
ReplyDeletethere may be a more sinister bear count at work - we will find out overnight.
Not sure what you are seeing. If ((2)) ended last week and we assume 1.68 for ((3)) the target is 200 pts down. More sinister than that?
DeleteIs it concerning because it's expected that the index's all make high's together...so the market might approach the highs again to allow those lagging indexes to "catch up"?
ReplyDeleteThanks Joe
Thanks ET, things are getting interesting. Best guess I could make out of the spaghetti on the DAX chart was a very ugly triangle in play earlier in the session. Sure enough it crashed down right where it should of out of the triangle. So again, best guess, I have the DAX at 1-2, i with ii in progress which appears to line up nicely with the SPX. A further word on your expanding diagonal (ED). Firstly, great spotting and secondly, I think it may applicable to other Wall Street indices as well. Finally a confirmation question: For the 1st wave down (i.e. 2954 down to 2801), I believe your preference is 5 waves down rather than an a-b-c for the 1st wave of a diagonal. Am I correct on that assumption?
ReplyDeleteIt's not up to me to have a preference. They just mean different things in the market.
DeleteJoe, I am still trying to understand degree. Can you help below? I have a structure I am not sure on.
ReplyDelete0
minute a
minute b
minuette i
0 to minute a took 7 bars
can minute b to minuette i take 10 bars or is that a degree violation?
Gerald, I am trying to be patient with you, but you keep asking the same question over and over again. What do you think the answer to your question is?
DeleteI will need to measure the Russel, just looking at the pic - may not even be 90% . That was my observation. Perhaps not a B wave
ReplyDeleteRussell measure to about 75%. X or 2?
DeleteSeeing an abc correction. C not complete. May go back to gap fill 2744.
ReplyDeleteIn a melt up senerio, just gonna keep getting extented waves.
ReplyDeleteHere's an update on cash and the likely flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/auk8w
TJ
At the present location c:5 is a 62% retrace.
DeleteVIX and yen probably looking for the May 5 gap fill first before any big reversal
ReplyDeleteLonger fourth wave it is, even if it truncates.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/aul1n
TJ
Roughly equal highs, so far.
DeleteDOW made a new high here. SP500 still struggling.
DeleteSP500 cash has downward overlap on the first wave of upward wave v of C. Likely the upward wave is over and a truncation occurred.
DeleteIs it possible that from SPY 232 to SPY 294 you have an A. Then from SPY 294 to around SPY 265 (completing end of June) you have a B. And then you get a C up to new highs around October or December, which completes V?
ReplyDeleteNope; any fifth wave must be an impulse in five waves or a diagonal in five waves. Specifically, 'not' an A-B-C. I have no idea where you get that as valid.
DeleteNever said it was. Was just thinking out loud bc I still see a new high in Oct - Dec. Thanks
Delete@Aw328 .. any more nonsense comments like that, (the fact that you did indeed say it negates your later comment "Never said it was.") and your account will be sent to spam.
DeleteIF a higher high is made, the only other pattern I see to finish the current wave is an ending 'expanding' diagonal. But, they are quite rare, and should be a pattern of last resort. In any case, a new high would be needed.
ReplyDeleteSo far, so good. Nothing about a truncated fifth wave was invalidated by the cash close.
DeleteCompleted gold impulse?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/x5UhNfb
The clearest pattern I see is in semis. Take a peek at SMH. Isn't that a perfect 5 wave move down from the peak - that completed yesterday? If so, the corrective rebound has only just begun, with many days, or weeks, of A-B-C rallying likely. If so, and leadership of the semis continues, the broader indexes also should be in some-kind of bottoming process, with the third wave meltdown postponed till wave 2 completes in the semis.
ReplyDeleteKevin:
ReplyDeleteIt does measure nicely as is, but I notice on the 60min, the lowest AO trough is on the last move down. Could it be there is a 1,2 i,ii hiding in there, thus and extended 3rd wave? If so, we would likely have a 4,5 yet to complete, with a divergent 5th on AO. Just a thought. Haven't investigated.