Hard to read too much into today, but it was only an inside day with a lower close. That really does nothing to disturb the current recent downward trend. But, from the chart below, we want you to notice some of the current "length of price" relationships in the daily ES futures chart below.
 |
| ES E-Mini S&P 500 Futures - Daily - Inside Day |
Thus, in some ways it seems like much more downward movement will have a larger technical significance in terms of the degrees of the downward waves.
Have a good start to your evening,
TraderJoe
Thanks, Joe! These past few months have been fascinating - and a real lesson in patience
ReplyDeleteinside day busting downward overnight
ReplyDeleteSee below.
ReplyDeleteThis pattern could be based on 1) the length of the waves, 2) the timing of the waves, and 3) the pattern of the EWO - which, so far, has divergent lows. That said, a full-on impulse lower could still play out. Investing.com measurements say (iii) < (i).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/aqu6p
TJ
If recent bottom holds this diagonal looks great and maybe cash did a wedge shaped impulse
DeleteI was able to capture 60 points the other day when overnight limit order hit at ES2930 but have been out since. I am hoping this would pull up to ES2923 or 2914. You expect this to pull up that high? Also do You think that this whole up move from dec is done? in an abcde (on the 4 hr chart above - replace wx WX with ab cd)?
ReplyDeleteI do not respond to comments about 'trades', only to comments about wave counting. Yes, as far as I can tell, the move from 24th Dec is done.
ReplyDeleteAfter the open, the S&P500 cash index does not 'look' like a diagonal. The down wave is still in an acceleration channel, lower.
ReplyDeleteThere is now also a break of the 'base channel' lower, and > 1.618 wave lower.
DeleteThe Dow has just downwardly overlapped the 'a' upward of it's 4-hr ending diagonal, shown in days past.
DeleteThanks Joe for that very helpful chart above. I'll feel a lot better when we get past 2816 in SPX cash.
ReplyDeleteyw..
Delete15 min ES Contracting Diagonal?
ReplyDeleteBasis the SPX, it would appear that it could be counted as an ABC or 1,2,3
ReplyDeleteso far, with A or 1 X2.00 = C or 3. Agree?
The move down (to date) remains within parallel lines, suggesting corrective price action.
DeleteTJ,
ReplyDeleteI have not yet posted any charts yet so here it goes. The biggest question I have is the b wave of 2 in the chart is it possible or a major degree violation?
This is SPX Futures 45 min. (Wave 3 in the chart i<iii<v)
https://imgur.com/QHZ87ia
Thanks
Tim
EWO would not be in agreement with that count.
DeleteHere is my LD thought.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/1DmjVSa
This trade war thing is like watching two broke neighbors try an outspend each other.
ReplyDeleteAs far as I can tell, to avoid degree violations (in the futures), the down wave should be counted like this at this time.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/aqynq
TJ
Best alternate is BBR's contracting diagonal, above. Trying to see which one works best on the Dow.
DeleteTJ appreciate it thank you!
DeleteTJ, I don't understand why you have (iii) subdividing a, b, c.
DeleteExpanding diagonal, all legs should be 3s.
ReplyDeleteDon't all 3's subdivide 3-3-5 or 5-3-5? So C waves are always 5s? I never knew a 3rd wave can subdivide as a 3.
DeleteOnly in a diagonal can a 3rd wave be a three.
DeleteI agree, the 3rd wave of a diagonal can be a zigzag or an impulse. But inside a zigzag, the A and C waves are either impulses or (rarely) diagonals. If the 3rd wave inside the zigzag is extended, then it should be an impulse. The characteristics of the diagonal don't propagate down into the diagonal's subwaves. A zigzag is a zigzag. At least, that is my understanding.
DeleteI think Exp diagonal only one that works on NXD
ReplyDeleteBlogosphere appears to be split between those that prefer 3 waves down vs those who prefer 5 waves down to this point. Indeed it is hard to determine with confidence.
ReplyDeleteOne personal observation is if we move (i) on ET's latest chart back to where the first "a" is we can keep (ii) in the same location noting The same manoeuvre can be performed on the YM. (ii) in this case would be kept at the same location and be counted as a failed expanded flat where the c wave falls short of the a wave. This would serve 2 purposes. Firstly it would eliminate the diagonal count as (iii) can still be counted as a normal 5 waves down to the low for the move thus avoiding the "time rules" that relate to diagonals. Secondly wave (iii) in both ES and YM would be slightly longer than 1.618 times wave (i).
Am I confident in this option? Not overly but the fib. relationship(s) suggest a close eye should be kept on the possibility it may prove correct. Overlap and invalidation on this option does not occur until the 26180/2900 areas (cash basis).
One further thought to keep in mind IF we have 3 waves down on the way to 5 waves under the option I've just mentioned is we should be on the lookout for a likely zig-zag or triangle for wave iv to alternate with the flat of wave ii.
DeleteI maybe wrong but looks to me like 3 down so far?
ReplyDeleteClick here for ES chart 15 min
Or 5th pending as shown below
DeleteES chart 15min
I find the cash to be a bit more clear.
Deleteshort term aside, long term is confusing as heck. Since 2009 march cycle, there are three interpretations
Delete1. 3 waves up completed with 5th pending - (some say 3 of p1)
2. 5 completed - (think p1)
3. 5 completed and there is a 1,2 setup on top. (this is way too bullish 1,2 of p3 in progress)
In other words we got bupkiss.
this was just before the spike
DeleteES chart 15 min
can potentially argue that 5'er completed though.
Maybe a diagonal from top on Russell? Looks like abc down..
ReplyDeletesorry for bad iPhone quality:
https://i.imgur.com/WSmvS5Q.png
Those who want to view an alternative point of view, may have a look at Lara's video
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljPA5P47x8w
John:
DeleteThanks for the update!
You're welcome
DeleteAnyway the video is one week old.
John, Thanks for the link. Lara's videos present a lot of information, often useful. I do not agree with her count in this case. There is a big mistake in the video regarding weekly ADX - there is no trend when ADX is less than 20.
DeleteAs I wrote about way back on Thursday May 3, the DOW has overlap that does not allow the supposed alternate to work.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2019/05/three-more-headaches.html
Here is a further update.
https://invst.ly/arh8c
Also, a red 4 would be longer than a red 2, ruling out several different types of upward diagonals in this case.
TJ
3 waves down to the low of the day. Therefore expanded flat or triangle. If its an expanded flat then we require 5 waves up toward 25980/2887 (overnight highs). If its a triangle then currently in wave C of the triangle.
ReplyDeleteCould always be a truncation with 3 waves. I think from May 7 to today's low was a completed ending diagonal.
DeleteFrom May 7 the 3rd wave in an ending diagonal count is the longest wave in TIME however way you count it. So that count would appear a doubtful proposition.
Delete2937 - 2862 (a)
Delete2862 - 2896 (b) truncated c
2896 - 2836 (c)
2836 - 2875 (d)
2875 - 2825 (e)
C, I stand corrected. After a closer look that count appears okay. That would then make it 3 waves down from the highs. Next question is can a contracting diagonal be the 3rd wave of an impulse? Anybody?
DeleteBilly, diagonals are leading or ending, they can not be in the middle.
DeleteThanks Tom E.
DeleteWelcome, Billy. I think your expanded flat idea is still possible.
DeleteAs far as I can tell, we now have a 'flat' wave. So, there could be a contracting diagonal, followed by a flat wave after it. I hesitate on the impulse count because there would be no alternation.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ET I was just thinking the exact thing regarding lack of alternation.
DeleteA new post was started for the next day.
ReplyDelete