Up Wave Without A Substantial Pull-back x((1)) ?

This is the best hourly count I see. There is nothing yet to imply that the up wave is over. It would be quite a short wave ((5)) if the wave ended here. But, it bears watching. Price has not gone over the all-time high yet on this index, but it could.

What we can see is that the 0 - ((2)) trend line has been broken to the downside, and that is likely the wave ((4)). The location of ((3)) is not precise. There is one way to count in which ((3)) is at the 0.618 extension of wave ((1)). There is also a way to count wave ((4)) as a triangle - which was shown in the cash market in the comments.

The hourly EWO did drop below the zero line meeting the requirement of +10% to -40% of the largest prior peak. There is also a smaller probability that wave ((4)) is further to the right on the chart as a flat. Again, this depends on any overlaps. But at this point the up move exceeded a 1.382 of the prior high and low.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

Internals

The $NYA has made a new high. The advance/decline line has made a new high. The Dow (YM) futures need to be watched to see if they exceed their truncation high. The ES futures have exceeded the 90% level of their decline. Internally, there is now more than a 1.272 wave up off the low with a higher high on the EWO.

The situation suggests drawing this tentative channel and looking to see if the channel holds or not. As I said previously, it is possible to go over the high. The $NYA has done that - as was commented yesterday.

The symbol (c)/(iii) > means this wave is continuing until a clear reversal is seen. And a wave (iii) is as likely as a (c) wave; but a 1.618 wave has not been attained yet.

Have a good start to the day.

TJ

Smart Money Target Hit

In previous posts we noted that the upper daily Bollinger Band might be a target for the Smart Money: those with position sizes large enough to move prices. This morning that target was hit and then some.

Today being Tuesday, prices might 'turn around' some. The question is how much and what it means for a wave count.

Have a good start to the day.

TraderJoe

Count Not Useful at the Moment

Today, we said the Smart Money might target the upper Bollinger Band at 4,472.50 and price got to 4,468 not quite making it. Why? Maybe it will on Monday/Tuesday. Maybe not. If not, there is a potential failure lurking, as we showed in the comments for today on the ES 8-Hr chart, below.

Price has not yet crossed up over the 27 Sep high. It could. That would be a common expectation. Price could also continue up to the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio or beyond. Could it make a new high? It could. 

The wave count is relatively useless at this point. A lot depends on that issue we we having with the first wave down. Is it a "five" or a "three"? If it's a 'five' we might just have had a large flat following it. Or, if it's a "five" the wave structure to the low might be ((a)), ((b)), ((c)) to Minor 1, with a second wave, Minor 2 for the month of October. Or the a-b-c could be part of a triangle, somewhere.

If it's a "three", then the wave structure to the low might count as w-x-y.

Another confusing item: the SPX/SPY and NQ futures made lower lows the first day of October. The ES did not. So, this might support some sort of "b" or "x" wave at the early October low. But, again, it does not add to the clarity. 

Too, neither is the situation with degree labeling able to answer many questions. But, because the late September wave down is shorter in price and time than the early September wave down, it can count as a sub-wave - like a "b" wave or an "x" wave.

Dubiously, the situation requires flexibility and willingness to use technical indications such as the Bollinger Bands until we see if a new high is made first or a new low. Right now, the Bollinger Bands do not exactly look like they are in a position to support new all-time-highs right away. But, stranger things have happened.

Have a good start to your evening and to your weekend.

TraderJoe

Trend Line Broken

Today the down trend line was broken (and, hence, the upper parallel trend line). The upper daily Bollinger Band might be a 'Smart Money' target, but it does not have to be.

The count is temporarily in a state of limbo until we see how far the up wave pushes. At this point one can speculate until blue-in-the-face about triangle, and where they start, etc. We will avoid that for now while admitting a triangle is possible - but so it a Flat wave.

The one thing we will note, is that if this is the whole correction, it is just less than 23.6% from the Oct-Nov 2020 low. And it is only 14.6% from the March 2020 low. More downside - which has not been ruled out yet - could make those numbers more proportional. Such shallow corrections are almost unheard of.

Have a  good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

Back to the Line In the Sand

Yesterday, we suggested that maybe a second wave wasn't done yet to the upside. Today tended to bare that out.

After making a 90% retrace needed for the 'b' wave of a Flat wave, price then headed higher to the combination of the 100-day SMA, and the 18-day SMA. Keep on a watch out to see if the 18-SMA crosses under the 100-day.

Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe

Still in Channel - 2

Today posted some lower lows versus yesterday. We could count a new wave i down as an expanding diagonal which still fits degree labeling because it is shorter in both time and price than all of (a) - the prior higher degree wave in the same direction (down).

ES Futures - 8 Hr - Still in A Channel

Therefore, wave i counts as a valid subwave. It now seems largely a question of whether wave sub-minuette ii finished today or wants to make one more series of highs above today's interim highs. It certainly can do that if it wants, but just not exceed the (b) wave high.

This is also just a reminder than wave minuet (c) can either be an impulse or a diagonal. Why? Because it is in the (c) wave position, and therefore may be either if minuet (a) was an impulse.

The market may be perceived to be moving like molasses to the the down side. I did not order such. It is just what seems to be happening - for now. Regardless, wave iii of (c) should be a fairly dynamic affair if this is counted properly.

Have an excellent start to the evening, and thanks for reading.

TraderJoe