Here's the current situation on the SPX500 (CFD) 4-hr chart. The black diagonal count reflects the fact that there is no good divergence yet with the NYSE A/D line.
The wave up from blue (b) to blue (c) or red 4 to red 5 is an impulse in either count. This is another good illustration of how The Principle of Equivalence plays out in practice: some impulse segments can be parts of two counts.
Three key factors in either count are: 1) the current down wave has traded below the Ⓐ wave of the prior triangle, at micro degree, 2) the current down wave is longer in price than wave ii of the prior impulse, as shown, 3) while a Flat for blue wave iv is still technically possible, it looks to be much lower odds at this point because it's up wave would be longer-in-time than the prior wave iii, the previous higher degree wave in the same direction, and this would seem to be a violation of degree definitions. So watch the high of this down wave.
Have an excellent rest of the day.
TraderJoe
Thanks Tj. "and this would seem to be a violation of degree definitions" The why you have put blue as primary count(if lower odd for iv as flat) than red and black alt counts ?
ReplyDeleteNot quite. It just means blue iv is probably over, and a larger expanded Flat for wave four, as blue iv, with the all-time-high being a 'b' wave has a lot, lot lower odds. Then, either black or red can still take place. TJ.
DeletePedro writes:
ReplyDeleteANYHOW .... if we Need or Should have the NYSE A/D divergence at the NEXT HIGH,
we likely need a more serious drop between now and then, to set that up.
Like your black 2 or red 4.
My work likes that idea.
GL
pedro
Your cited metrics that might signal a market top is an excellent list! Might I suggest one more? This is a market that few reference when talking about equities but just might have equal or more probative value as the items you cited. This market absolutely dwarfs equity markets for sheer size and quietly sits as a deadly and irrefutable arbiter of the fate of all other markets. Some of you know exactly what I am talking about. Soros' former operative, now Treasury Secretary is showing signs of panic. From his remarkable intervention in Japanese markets to prevent them unloading Treasuries to support the Yen, to his puerile pre market opening announcement of bond repurchases. True no fire yet, but lots of smoke, and from a direction not too many are paying attention to imo.
ReplyDeleteBitcoin is forecasting a major equity rally next week after options expiration. Markets should make new highs by the first few trading days in September. Then, I'd expect a 40 to 50% decline with the bottom occurring before Election Day. Typical mid-term pullbacks average 20%, but the margin debt and leverage needs to be addressed. A reality check for the bulls is well overdue.
ReplyDeleteSPY (Cash) 15-min: according to The Eight-Fold-Path Method, this lower low bar now permits the counting of five-waves-down as an impulse. With 150 candles on the chart and a 2.618 wave (iii), and prefect 'Fibonacci pinball' retrace to the 1.618 for wave (iv).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/h7ovIIfc/
Can go a bit further if it wants.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ