Monday, August 3, 2026

The Ups & Downs = Be Flexible

Here are two scenarios for the current wave movement. The upward chart is first. Triangles are a pretty 'typical' pattern and often happen before the ending sequence of a wave. As such, it has slightly better odds than the downward pattern.


The purpose of the above the triangle is to still better equalize the wave travel downward between wave (e) of the potential triangle and the second wave circle-ii, minute-ii. The Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) is still in range for a fourth wave.

The second scenario is high risk & lower odds. It is that a downward diagonal has started without a really large downward reversal candle. With the three-waves down that we analyzed in the prior post, the down movement would likely have to be a diagonal, and it has a pretty strict invalidation limit.


It merely assumes that the triangle has already occurred as there IS a potential wave four and weak wave five signature on the EWO. The triangle is also a bit skewed and that increases the low odds of the pattern. But, it is what it is. Lower odds, but possible. One thing to like about the second pattern is that the equalization between minute-ii, circle-ii & minute-iv, circle-iv is that the equalization has already occurred.

So, just be careful, flexible & patient until something begins to take over the count. 

Have an excellent start to the day.

TraderJoe

46 comments:

  1. Here's the 'first-of-the-month' money. TJ

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    1. Those Gluttons deserve to be left holding the bag.

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  2. Thanks TJ. SPY two more gaps closed.

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  3. Cash SPX weekly -This chart, with proper channel, is only presented as a probable option. It is not intended to supersede or disagree with any chart of the blogowner.

    https://schrts.co/SBAVEfXM

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    1. ...but 4 didn't reach the channel? TJ

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    2. mid line is entirely acceptable.

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    3. For learning, is thr a rule that 4 has to reach the channel? 4 completed on last Wednesday and didn't overlapped wave 1’s price range. It being an ascending triangle completed noe getting busted upwards.

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    4. No rule that I know of says 4 must reach the lower trend line. Problems occur when 4 goes too far to the right of the lower trend line. This 4 almost has to be a triangle as things stand now.

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    5. Sure there is; to call a channel 'any' channel, a channel, there MUST be four touch points 0,1,2,3,4; otherwise it's not a channel. Not a 'proper' channel. It is only a 'projected' channel, or 'supposed' channel, or 'imagined' channel at this point. You were the one that called it the 'proper' channel, as if you had the definitive word on it. Not me. TJ.

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    6. @Manu; no, reaching the lower channel usually depends on which wave is the extended wave. When 3 is the extended wave, 4 'usually' meets the channel. When 1 is the extended wave, then a contracting wedge 'often' forms. When 5 is the extended wave, 4 'might' be quite a bit below the lower channel. These are 'tendencies' not rules. TJ.

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    7. Calm down Comrad. Check in with Jeff Kennedy.

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    8. The difference between us is you have an agenda. I don't.

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    9. I'm familiar with most of Kennedy 's works including his books. His KCT works about 30% of the time, and he has been pretty ineffective at calling the extent of 4th waves. TJ.

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    10. My only agenda is to help people who want to learn and don't want to be a donkey 🐴 about it. TJ.

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    11. Your abomination of a channel in order to protect your "C" label, helps no one.

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  4. SPX500 (CFD) 30 min - from the intraday wave-counting-screen; three closes outside the upper band drops the odds to 2 - 5% of the next close outside of the band. Not impossible, just lower odds.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/OgMaorDD/

    TJ

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    1. .also, a tap on daily R2 pivot.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/4zGs3TPm/

      TJ

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  5. ES 1-hr: here's a suggested way to currently count upward and maintain degree labeling.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/GnN47TYs/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ...but at this moment, 44% advancing, 56% declining.

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  6. Interesting Nq 27200 to 28900 in 3 days. 6% rise.

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  7. Spy one gap left upside and one downside :)

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  8. Same pattern after Warsh first and second address making lows same day. 7632 also taken. Huge rally.

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  9. Replies
    1. That wouldn't surprise me at all. I've always thought the SPX correction would be more like the NDX correction.

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  10. ES 1-hr: the 'high risk' downward scenario invalidated. TJ.

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  11. I think all downward scenario invalidated :)

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  12. Classic post-triangle thrust! Nice call!

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  13. SPX500 (CFD) - 1 hr: a second five waves up are now countable, as was started yesterday.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/CpDBXMJK/

    TJ

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    1. They are 'buying with abandon' directly into the upper daily Bollinger Band, which is a spot the Smart Money 'often' takes some profits off the table. TJ

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    2. A beautiful sight...cheap puts!!! He!he!

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  14. SPX500 (CFD) 30-min from the intraday wave-counting-screen. There are already five closes over the upper band, and possibly working on a 6th. Odds dropping rapidly. Say, 2 - 3% goes to 1 - 2%; not impossible just very low odds.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/zOJ9yl8c/

    Also, past the upper daily Bollinger Band with an over-bought daily slow stochastic.
    TJ

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  15. There's the highest high, for the noon new$ on Wall $treet. It's like 'the first-of-the-month' money phenomenon. It's how they advertise their wares. TJ.

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  16. If anyone thinks this "First of the Month" money I got a bridge in Brooklyn for sale!! Lol! Watch what happens next...Lol!

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    Replies
    1. They pushed DXY down, and that's all you need to know. However it won't stay down.

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  17. SPY (Cash) 2-hr: because of length violation, upward, and the look of the wave, I think this triangle has to be considered. But I'll agree in advance the 'e' wave is suspicious.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/nrvf8CWG/

    TJ

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  18. Thanks Tj. Very odd "e" wave.

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  19. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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