Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed mixed
SPX Candle: Lower High, Higher Low, Lower Close - Inside Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
The market knows we're all watching. Some markets, like the Nasdaq 100 Futures, and the Russell 2000 Futures put on lower low candles. The S&P500 was an inside candle, with a lower close. The DOW had a higher close.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Inside Day |
There still remain several ways to count the six last overlapping days. They could be wave iv of an impulse. They could be wave ii of a downward diagonal. They could be part of a triangle for wave iv, with a downward wave v to follow. Today was still very, very choppy price movement.
There are upward possibilities as well, but they will not be addressed unless or until there are higher high days. Right now, price is still being rejected by the EMA-13, and it is widening from the EMA-34, which still connotes a downward bias.
As of today, the NQ futures on the daily chart have a bearish cross of the 18-day SMA under the longer term 100-day moving average. The Russell 2000 did that on 09 Oct. The NQ futures have upward overlap on their first or 'a' wave down, which makes it seems like further downward price movement might help make a diagonal more readily in that price series. The Russell 2000 futures did not overlap upward.
On a shorter-term basis, the S&P500 30-minute channel we showed in yesterday's post was broken to the downside today, as we expected from the ((A)), ((B)), ((C)) labeling, upward, in yesterday's post.
Have a good start to your evening, and to your weekend!
TraderJoe
thanks Joe. I've been thinking a ot about wave degrees as far as their size and duration - what is "allowable". Can you point me in direction to read a little about it - its not EW rule (or is it). The one thing that i think is valuable is it limits the number of permissible counts. How do we evaluate whether or not its a necessary requirement? I think if it creates a subset which is more likely to be the "real count" then its valuable. I never considered the concept until reading your blog so thanks...
ReplyDeleteWelcome. There is no text on it currently. I am formulating some very rigid rules based on my understanding. They are not quite done yet.
Deletethanks. two questions if you don't mind. suppose you have five wave structure. first wave has extended fifth wave. meaning lower degree fitst wave very small. then suppose fifth wave has extended first wave and small fifth wave. I've thought this through and this structure may be ruled out. then what happens with violations
ReplyDeleteand does just saying the third wave of any extension must be larger than the minimum of the other 2 larger degree waves create proper wave degrees. my concern is what comes later in waves becomes function of prior lower degree waves
DeleteMarc, as I said, I am still working out some details, but I am progressing nicely. I have no idea why you chose the example of a first wave with an extended fifth wave. That would be an exceptionally rare case. Usually, fifth wave extensions happen in fifth waves. First waves are either typical impulses (with large third wave), or contracting diagonals. Much, much less often - very rarely - are they expanding diagonals or waves with fifth wave extensions in them.
DeleteAs to the second question, my work shows you have the question backwards.
Deletethanks. I'm just curious and hold you and your work in the highest regard
ReplyDeleteThanks for saying. These things have to be worked out carefully and take just a bit of time. At least it sounds like someone else gets it.
DeleteET,
ReplyDeleteI'm watching 2735 for triangle. Going to be so hard to tell next week. I mean we could drag a triangle out till November the 6th.
Yup, Bill. A triangle is possible. So are other formations. Be flexible and open.
DeleteTJ:
ReplyDeleteWhen you have some time to kill, on a 4hr chart, consider these:
a low on 2/9
b high on 3/12
c low on 4/2
d high mid June
e low 6/25
Also, d is made up of contracting triangle starting at c (3,3,3,3,3)
w1 ends 7/25
w2 8/15
w3 8/29
w4 9/7
w5 10/3
This helped my clarify the AO. Stictly my take. :o)
Thanks!
my = me
DeleteHi ta .. while plausible, all 'water under the bridge' at this point. We both now have w5 in the same location. And your count did not find a diagonal, which was predictive of the large drop to break the start of the diagonal in less time than it took to build, as mine did. Must move on to the down count, now.
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAs I wrote prior in two prior blog posts now: "all upward diagonals depend on price regaining 2,900 and will not be addressed until or unless that happened".
Delete