Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed mixed
SPX Candle: Lower High, Higher Low, Lower Close - Doji Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
That's right. The DJIA made a new all-time-high-today. And the Russell 2000 futures made a new monthly low. And the S&P500 was caught square in the middle, closing nearly unchanged. In Monday's post, we said that it was possible a triangle was forming. It is still possible. In fact, the minimum requirement for a running triangle to already have formed was met today. The intraday chart of the S&P500 is below.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Half Hourly - Triangle Complete or In Progress |
On the right hand side of the chart are the five overlapping waves of one proposed triangle, (a) through (e). At the end of the day, the last wave (e) in this version both downwardly overlapped the a wave - as required by a running triangle - but also stayed above it's own (c) wave. So, it's possible the triangle is the b wave of minuet v of minute (iii).
If there's a criticism of this proposed triangle, yes, it may not be symmetrical enough. And with a major report due at the end of the week, the triangle might "fall apart" lower by cracking through the current (c) wave in order to move sideways, and take more time. That's what triangles do. In that case, drop the lower trend line below the (c) wave. (Once again, triangle are patterns that must prove themselves, so an eventual break above the (b) wave would be required at some point).
Still, it depends how quickly the market wants to get the upward wave over with to end the contracting diagonal for wave minuet v of minute (iii). That's not up to me. I just try to count waves.
Again, upward momentum in these 500 large-cap stocks continues as awful, switching positions with the Dow which is the high-flyer at the moment. Small caps are declining, and riding their lower daily Bollinger Band as of now.
Let's continue to take it one step at a time, and see if the pattern becomes more symmetrical, even though there are no broken rules in the above pattern.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks again for your work. I trade E Mini and as I sit here tonight and my charts again move as you predicted I see your correct again as the charts plot your move. Which makes me think, do you have a yearly count? It's becoming increasingly obvious that your weekly and monthly is correct, or very close, an near conclusion over the next several months. My question is, if from the bottom a decade ago to today is five waves up is this a final super cycle top or is the correction in front of us something else.
ReplyDeleteI plan to address the long term shortly. So stay tuned.
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