Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed lower; NDX higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Lower Close - Possible Hanging-Man Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
On October 11, 2018, in a post you can find at this LINK. I stated it was very possible we had a daily top in Crude Oil. Today, unlike the S&P500, the WTI November Crude Oil chart, made a clear, impulse wave down on the two-hourly chart which appears below.
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| CL November Futures - Daily - Clear Non-Overlapping Impulse |
The wave began with the contracting diagonal lower - same as in the S&P500 Cash Index. After a sharp looking second wave, which retraced about 60%, this predicted a longer and stronger third wave down on the low of the MACD indicator shown. Then, there was a very sideways looking fourth wave, which can be either a failed double combination or a triangle with a very, very short (e) wave. Regardless, after attacking the upper parallel Elliott trend channel, without overlapping the first wave, prices then broke down as expected for a fifth wave.
This is what we were expecting in the S&P500. So far, we haven't gotten it. Of course, Crude Oil doesn't have "quarterly earning report news" to possibly interfere with the creation of an impulse in terms of timing.
The jury is still out on the S&P500. More on it tomorrow.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
thanks
ReplyDeleteWelcome Marc!
DeleteET,
ReplyDeleteWith the triple divergence in the weekly AO I'm ready to see it turn red. The daily AO is most likely negative tomorrow. I don't see any momentum so maybe we drift toward Halloween. Just need the weekly to turn red.
Thank you for the counts!
thank you, Joe!
ReplyDeleteNice Joe !. Once again, some professionals moved today to your oil count with one week of delay.
ReplyDeleteHaha. Good to hear. Thx for letting me know!
DeleteSpeaking of other sites, I'm chuckling over one showing the recent decline as a 3 wave minute a of an expected abc minor zigzag.
DeleteI questioned him on this and his reply was "when it comes to corrective activity form matters not detail"
DeleteOh Joe! This is why we love your work so much!
Lets just break all the rules! LOL
DeleteI hear you PT.
DeleteHi, Could you please reveal what you expect after these 5waves down complete:
ReplyDeleteMeaning was this a larger degree w1 down and are you expecting a corrective abc up next from around here for w2?
Thanks
Hi Darell. That is possible and likely. The market has to prove it out yet.
DeleteThanks for your time, a few follow ups if i may:
Delete- What level or price structure would validate if this is indeed a w1 low ?
- If this is indeed intermediate w1 low, for abc up you would be looking for a 50% retracement of w1 ?
The upward retrace is more than 38%, almost 50% and could be sufficient. We have already had a lower low day today (this morning 18 Oct) that started with a gap down. That is to be respected until or unless the high of yesterday is exceeded higher. (There are still ways to make a further up move, but not good to assume it will happen with current candles as lower low days. Would need higher high days).
DeleteThanks
DeleteSo if it gets/closes above the high of oct 17 then it becomes possible that it tries to go for new highs ?