Thursday, October 25, 2018

Most Major U.S. Equity Markets - Inside Days

Market Outlook: Probable Long Term Top Identified
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher; DJUtil lower
SPX Candle: Lower High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Inside Candle 
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

If you read yesterday's post, it is very hard to say yesterday's S&P500 hourly chart was not predictive. Here is the wave that resulted, today.

SP500 Cash Index - Hourly - Potential Contracting Diagonal

Does the upward wave have to be over? No. Can it be? Yes. It would be super-slick to see price tag the upper trend line as drawn and even push it out a bit.

 Hint: Technically, there could be a (B) wave flat from the middle of the day today, which definitely does retrace over the top of the prior (A) wave, both in the cash and especially in the after-hours futures. 

Let's see if they give it one more heave-ho up tomorrow.

 What happens if they don't? Consider a very minor truncation at the high today. Today's upward wave ((4)) was just over 38.2%, but less than 50%: sufficient, but it can do better. In any event, remember that wave ((4)) must remain shorter than wave ((2)). If it doesn't, we'll address it at that time. Right now we have very, very objective criteria, which is always a plus.

They're doing their level best to make sure there is the least possible confidence in this wave.

 Hang in there and remain patient, flexible and calm.
Have a good evening.
TraderJoe
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21 comments:

  1. domOctober 25, 2018 at 4:54 PM

    congratulations Joe for your work
    now we finish the wave v
    what is the goal?

    ReplyDelete
  2. mblctaOctober 25, 2018 at 4:58 PM

    The setup at the close is for a collapse tomorrow. For now, I'm still counting the 2691-2754 rally as 5 waves, which could be the end of a running wave iv that began at 2710 on 10/11, or the other running count that I mentioned yesterday. Today's rally was a 3 wave affair, without a doubt, and it did nothing to violate the downtrend. So, whether it ends up being a ED as you're counting it, or a 5th wave impulse as I'm counting it, tomorrow should easily take out 2650, with the potential to be a massacre.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderOctober 25, 2018 at 5:04 PM

      oh, there is 'doubt'...

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderOctober 25, 2018 at 5:45 PM

      For just a moment, forget about price and look at 'time' ... Wave ((1)) is longer in time than wave ((3)), and wave ((4)) is shorter in time than Wave ((2)). That is the 'usual' progression in a contracting diagonal. Then, it would be expected that wave ((5)) was shorter in "time" than wave ((3)), too.

      Further, I'm just being objective: I'm not sure if that "running wave 4 scenario" creates a degree violation or not. Wave 4's 'usually' have fewer net points traveled than wave 2's. And while wave 4's are usually longer than wave 2's in time, your wave 4 would be "ten fold" or more in time.

      That seems a bit excessive, time-wise. But, hey, I'm out of time now.

      Delete
    3. mblctaOctober 25, 2018 at 7:33 PM

      I understand what you're saying about "time" with the running 4th, but that then that takes me to the alternate, where iv ended at 2817, and everything since then has been either a subdividing V down or C down.

      Delete
    4. Elliott_TraderOctober 25, 2018 at 9:51 PM

      Yup. Better - if the diagonal breaks it's length.

      Delete
  3. domOctober 25, 2018 at 5:06 PM

    joe you can put a daily chart for tomorrow after closing thank you

    ReplyDelete
  4. domOctober 25, 2018 at 5:15 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  5. marcOctober 25, 2018 at 5:33 PM

    thanks joe.
    this after hours could be bottom.
    or yesterday was a 1, today a 2, and tomorrow a 3.
    or what you posted most likely

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderOctober 25, 2018 at 6:21 PM

      Please see information on 'time' to mblcta comments above.

      Delete
  6. domOctober 25, 2018 at 5:35 PM

    forgiveness a day and hebdo chart

    ReplyDelete
  7. UnknownOctober 25, 2018 at 7:11 PM

    Is it possible that this is all a "c" of a year long 4th wave...with a 5th wave to come after the elections?

    ReplyDelete
  8. UnknownOctober 25, 2018 at 7:15 PM

    a "c" wave from ath?

    ReplyDelete
  9. JayOctober 25, 2018 at 7:21 PM

    Hello. Can someone speak English here and let me know if market is going up or down tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Pittsburgh TomOctober 25, 2018 at 8:32 PM

    I wanted to post this earlier but my wave 5 was too long. LOL
    Looking at the action this week we have:
    Tues = a big wave down
    & a big wave up
    Wed = a really big wave down
    Thur = a big wave up
    Friday in the interest of alternation should bring another big wave down.

    Sorry, it's just really hard to come up with EWT humor.

    ReplyDelete
  11. pbeckOctober 25, 2018 at 9:57 PM

    Thanks Joe for continued EWT education and also thanks for the recent video. You did not say outright but implied from the charts the bull move from 1975 could be over. That price level was approx 600. Its hard to even imagine about the implications.

    One step at a time I guess just now counting in the downward direction.

    ReplyDelete
  12. SteveOctober 25, 2018 at 10:41 PM

    Thanks Joe, if we bottom at wave 5 around 2620ish what we gonna do next ? back to 2760ish? or ?

    ReplyDelete

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