Most major markets Lower Lows

Market Outlook: Probable Long Term Top Identified
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed lower; DJUtil higher
SPX Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close - Trend Candle 
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

With "five up" yesterday, today was the best chance to see a higher high daily candle. That did not happen. As far as I can tell, the five waves wound up being the 'c' wave end of a flat wave for (B) today. Price in the overnight marked nicked the high of yesterday and then began falling off quickly. Bomb threats in NYC today did not help. People asked yesterday if lower low prices were possible, and I responded that they certainly were.

Today, the NAS/NDX, RUT, DOW and S&P500 all made new lower lows. That is a second lower low for all. Yesterday, I published a count of a potential diagonal as an alternate count. That potential diagonal is still on the table as of today's close. There is nothing about an impulse that has been ruled out yet. It can still very well be the main count. None-the-less the internal wave count is so wicked as to demand a look at the potential diagonal.

S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly Chart - Potential Leading Diagonal

First, nothing says that wave (C) of ((3)) is now over. It may want to spike lower tomorrow to the 78.6% extension where ((3)) would be 78.6% x ((1)). Further, as a diagonal, the wave must conform in every manner to a diagonal wave.

So, now we have very, very objective criteria. If wave ((3)) becomes longer than wave ((1)) downward, then the diagonal is over - meaning invalidated. Finit. Kaput. Then we move on to a 1.618 wave downward - out of the gate.

However, if before the end of the month, wave ((3)) remains shorter than wave ((1)), and we get a fourth wave ((4)) up, as shown above, which remains shorter than wave ((2)), and occurs as a zigzag, then it is possible we will get a fifth wave down to end the series in which a wave ((5)) must remain shorter than wave ((3)).

Again, these five waves down would be to a minute (i) wave, downward.

Please have patience and flexibility. The market is doing the best it can to throw us and everyone else off its course. Again, there is nothing wrong with an impulse lower, it just doesn't "look right" at this time. No upward counts can be considered until there are higher high days. 

On some technical notes, the NQ today just made an outside reversal day down. And today confirmed a cross of the 18--day SMA down under the 100-day SMA on the daily ES futures chart with Bollinger Bands. A lot of moving average cross-over people follow those carefully in the futures. You are encouraged to review the daily futures charts with 18-day Bollinger Bands to see where prices are now in relationship to those bands. NYSE breadth is about 3 or 4 : 1 on the downside; most truly impulsive kick-offs are 9 or 10 : 1; so that may fit more with the diagonal, but new lows are completing swamping new highs.

You have your work cut out for you.
Have a good evening.
TraderJoe