In a further follow-up to the May 18th post (see post at this LINK), now some two months later, the market continues to take its time to complete this pattern. Now at 139 two-weekly bars, the Elliott Wave Oscillator's (EWO or AO) fourth wave signature, dipping below the the zero line - which is not always required, but did happen this time - is apparent. So too, can be seen the initialization of the fifth wave up bars in the oscillator. The EMA-34 can be seen to be winding through each numbered wave for good form and balance.
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| DOW (YM) Futures - 2 Weekly - Likely Diagonal |
The pattern could take a while yet, especially if the next Minor B wave becomes a triangle. The pattern is trying to put you to sleep and make it difficult to trade at the same time. And, it may be waiting for some news to make you think there is a reason for the decline - whenever it comes. And, yes, the Minor A wave can go a bit higher if it wants.
Is it possible for a pattern like this to fail? It definitely is. But, as of yet, there is not real good evidence of such. And based on the lengths of the prior waves, we are trying diligently not to rush the count and would like to see if the full A,B,C zigzag develops.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
What if the putative A of 5 notches a new high above wave 3? Could a complete ZZ still be legitimately counted?
ReplyDeleteOne of the reasons I don't think that would work out so well is that the NYSE Adv-Dec line was at a new all time high on Thursday of this week. I haven't seen a bear market yet that hasn't started out with a good lengthy divergence. TJ.
DeleteGiven this response, could you point me to your long term ES count?
Delete@BBRider.. the above just means that maybe the Minor C wave of (5) will be the one to diverge. I think Tachy was asking, "could this up wave really be the A,B,C by itself". The longer-term (monthly) count is above in the post. TJ.
DeleteTHX!!!!
DeleteThe sp500 graph you posted earlier hoe about all that is a triangle then we had a breakout with 5 waves which you are showing as C of 2nd leg of diagonal to make a new high.
ReplyDeleteMaybe its a Dow Follow Down
ReplyDeleteTechnically...the SPX and ES had a higher high on Thursday.....We had CIT's---Change in Trend on 7-3 and 7-10 (GannTiming.com).....maybe that was wave 5...... :-)
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 5-min: here's a count off the low of the futures, primarily. I'm doing my best to count in five-wave sequences, and ultimately the larger count, as above, will be in five waves. But on shorter time-scales, it's getting more and more challenging to find the impulse sequences. And the 'time sequences' are beginning to drive things somewhat out of proportion.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jWbDDNQ4/
TJ
Diagonal converts to impulse, as we have seen and described before.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GAKdHCys/
TJ
..just fyi - there is now downward overlap. Possibly a (b) wave starting.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZviH9X46/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.