While none of us know the exact answer to this question, luckily our time horizons can be a bit shorter, and we can consider the ES 4-Hr (roll-over contract) chart below.
Here we see only a lower-high construction but not yet a lower low. An eventual lower low is likely even for a simple a-b-c scenario within a parallel (temporarily sketched in as blue dotted lines). The market opened with a gap up this evening. That gap has been quickly filled. Earlier this week and last, price twice stopped at the 78.6% downward retracement level. It is amazing how it does that to keep one guessing if a triangle is in progress or not. Upward speed lines from prominent low points have been broken lower as has been the prior down (red) fractal, showing reduced upward market momentum. The location marked :5 is also a down (red) fractal.
Price is currently below the blue EMA-34 on this time scale. Below it is negative, above it is more positive. The four-hour MACD is currently headed lower and is below the zero line.
Tomorrow is the first trading day of a new month, new quarter, new year and new presidential term. Still there would have to be 'quite' a swing around from the characteristic sources of beginning-of-the-month inflows to change the local character of the market. Could it happen? Yes. Just that the probabilities are lower.
For a nested 1-2-i-ii count the upper parallel sketched in should hold the wave ii. A local flat could be in progress as wave ii with fair odds.
Have an excellent start to the New Year!
TraderJoe
looks like a triangle
ReplyDeleteMES Chart
but it is more interesting if you overlay micro btc futures over micro es futures
peaks and troughs are not the same but looks somewhat corelated.
I don't know what book you are reading, but c below a invalidates a contracting triangle, and d below b invalidates an expanding triangle. In other words you have posted a 'nonsense' count. It is what I call a 'cartoon' where you just place letters and/or numbers on the peaks or troughs of a chart without regard for the rules of Elliott Wave. It's nonsense. Please don't post such again or they will be removed. TJ.
DeleteTj, since SPY/SPX/ES oct 22 bottom overlapped aug 20 local high, you think it´s more plausible with and expanded diagonal count in contrast to DJI/YM from previous post?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/188xjh
5 = 100% 1-3
Either expanding diagonal or x(5) leaves in the same place at the same time with the same implications. TJ.
DeleteWhat makes me questioning the prob of a bigger degree top in the near future is Russell2k.
ReplyDeleteI read your post from jan 20 where you count 09 bottom to 2018 high as an impulse.
Is this still your primary interpretation?
https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/01/more-evidence-for-b-wave.html
Also post covid 2020-2021 high seems to count pretty well as an impulse..?
https://invst.ly/188x-7
So I came up with this count. Do you or any other reader have an alternate on R2k?
https://invst.ly/188y6h
Thanks!
Wouldn't this be a fairly obvious alternate? Usually, the third waves of diagonals are fairly strong and pop over the highs by quite a bit. This one only 'nicked it' which could be a sign just of a "B" wave.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/188z1r
Also, the Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter gives "guidelines" of 62-81% for the wave 2 and 4 retraces in diagonals. This second wave is not close. It is still all probabilities until there is more wave structure, though.
TJ
Agree! Would you say the same count on DJI & SPX is still at least "possible"?
DeleteI think you've shown a few very deep B waves here before.
It might be worthwhile to revisit that topic if ES price closes back above 18-day SMA, changing the bias. Right now, the bias is lower, so other things are on my mind. TJ.
DeleteTriangle break? Don't know which Triangle
ReplyDeleteSPY cash 1-hr: the cash market broke the prior low, but not the futures yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UIsUK4Zk/
This likely means the :5-:3 count is correct in some manner.
TJ
This latest downtrend since 6 December 2024 does not seem very impulsive. 🤔
ReplyDeleteInstead, it is very choppy and overlapping, and can be counted as threes.
Perhaps we have a correction (or first leg of a triangle) which is close to complete today?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/SbobHHCT/
SPX price has just broken out above yesterday's high.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/krkTY771/
Gap fill and 100ma still below. I think tomorrow opens lower and we finish this current move down by next week
ReplyDeleteSeems like a triangle for b of C now in c of the triangle. I say it because cash made lower low and futures didnt
ReplyDeleteMr. Market appears to be unwilling to leave an "unfinished business" in the form of unfilled over-head gaps. Have a great week-end all!
ReplyDelete