While we're waiting on resolution in the equity indexes, it seems worthwhile to have a look at the overall trend in Crude Oil (CL) futures. The chart below is monthly. Hopefully it is relatively self-explanatory.
Corrective wave sequences often occur within a rather clear channel. So far, only half of the channel is filled. The count shown is a straightforward Intermediate (A), (B), (C) corrective count, lower. Only the (B) wave looks complicated as a Minor W, X, Y where the barrier triangle is the Y wave. This type of combination wave is allowed under the Rules and Guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle. Prices started falling off today in what might be the end of the Ⓔ wave of the triangle.
Clearly, the powers that control oil prices have been doing all kinds of bargaining and saber-rattling in order to stave off a decline in oil prices. But if the economy loses strength this becomes more & more difficult.
Note, the (A) wave down is a protracted and halting-type wave. This suggests that any (C) wave down might be steep and short-lived.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
TJ, Thanks for the update. The triangle could extend as they like to do. I do not believe it is a basing pattern as the 50day is under the 200.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/fpNsPRr
Bitcoin looks like a textbook stage 3 toping pattern on the daily using the Stan Weinstein methodology. I know you are suppose to use log on large time frames, but I cant help but see a huge ED in bitcoin on the monthly.
DeleteI think the 30 year is working on an x wave. Any cut under the 2023 fall low would be a bad sign for the bulls even if they get a rally after.
DeleteTnx
ReplyDelete