Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Crude Interlude

While we're waiting on resolution in the equity indexes, it seems worthwhile to have a look at the overall trend in Crude Oil (CL) futures. The chart below is monthly. Hopefully it is relatively self-explanatory.



Corrective wave sequences often occur within a rather clear channel. So far, only half of the channel is filled. The count shown is a straightforward Intermediate (A), (B), (C) corrective count, lower. Only the (B) wave looks complicated as a Minor W, X, Y where the barrier triangle is the Y wave. This type of combination wave is allowed under the Rules and Guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle. Prices started falling off today in what might be the end of the  wave of the triangle.

Clearly, the powers that control oil prices have been doing all kinds of bargaining and saber-rattling in order to stave off a decline in oil prices. But if the economy loses strength this becomes more & more difficult.

Note, the (A) wave down is a protracted and halting-type wave. This suggests that any (C) wave down might be steep and short-lived.

Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe

4 comments:

  1. TJ, Thanks for the update. The triangle could extend as they like to do. I do not believe it is a basing pattern as the 50day is under the 200.

    https://imgur.com/fpNsPRr

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    1. Bitcoin looks like a textbook stage 3 toping pattern on the daily using the Stan Weinstein methodology. I know you are suppose to use log on large time frames, but I cant help but see a huge ED in bitcoin on the monthly.

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    2. I think the 30 year is working on an x wave. Any cut under the 2023 fall low would be a bad sign for the bulls even if they get a rally after.

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