While we're waiting on resolution in the equity indexes, it seems worthwhile to have a look at the overall trend in Crude Oil (CL) futures. The chart below is monthly. Hopefully it is relatively self-explanatory.
Corrective wave sequences often occur within a rather clear channel. So far, only half of the channel is filled. The count shown is a straightforward Intermediate (A), (B), (C) corrective count, lower. Only the (B) wave looks complicated as a Minor W, X, Y where the barrier triangle is the Y wave. This type of combination wave is allowed under the Rules and Guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle. Prices started falling off today in what might be the end of the Ⓔ wave of the triangle.
Clearly, the powers that control oil prices have been doing all kinds of bargaining and saber-rattling in order to stave off a decline in oil prices. But if the economy loses strength this becomes more & more difficult.
Note, the (A) wave down is a protracted and halting-type wave. This suggests that any (C) wave down might be steep and short-lived.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
TJ, Thanks for the update. The triangle could extend as they like to do. I do not believe it is a basing pattern as the 50day is under the 200.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/fpNsPRr
Bitcoin looks like a textbook stage 3 toping pattern on the daily using the Stan Weinstein methodology. I know you are suppose to use log on large time frames, but I cant help but see a huge ED in bitcoin on the monthly.
DeleteI think the 30 year is working on an x wave. Any cut under the 2023 fall low would be a bad sign for the bulls even if they get a rally after.
DeleteTnx
ReplyDeleteCL 4-hr: Crude exceeded the prior high overnight and into the jobs report. Still the prior down-turn is likely indicative of a fourth wave, as shown. Tricky counting, and tricky trading.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7lTRJAUP/
Crude is also up and over the daily Bollinger Band, and above the 200-day SMA on a first strike. The daily bias is "up" while over the 18-day SMA, and especially while the slow stochastic is still embedded. Possibly a larger triangle form.
TJ
SPY Cash 1-Hr: SPY has opened a gap to close a gap on this timeframe. Then, too, the prior "running gap" remains open.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/H5iCOkVW/
TJ
Maybe the c on the triangle from your previous post. Have a great weekend all.
ReplyDeleteDid it seem like today's drop was the kick-off of a third wave? The pattern in the VIX would seem to agree. 🤔
ReplyDeleteTrader Joe, I have followed along with your excellent analysis and chart from Sunday 5 January, and it seems to me like the EW pattern may be starting to break down from a nested i - ii, (i) - (ii), 1 - 2 into third of third waves:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xIHIUATg/
This could perhaps set the S&P 500 up for a significant sell-off, once the current micro wave ② correction completes, perhaps on Monday the 13th?
See the next day's post which is now up. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ