Turn of Degree?

In general, many, or even most, non-professional traders don't like to measure. Certainly, people seem to shy away from such when commenting on this blog. Yet, one of the purposes of this site is to try to help explain how much more sense an Elliott Wave analysis makes when one takes the time to make the basic measurements. The following measurements are true in both the SPX cash index and the ES daily roll-over futures.

SPX Cash Index - Daily - Longer Down Wave

Now, looking at this chart, the Fibonacci ruler reveals that the current down wave is longer-in-price than any of the down moves labeled as P, Q, or R. The Fibonacci ruler for the R down wave is not shown because that is obvious from exceeding its low. (The letters chosen were such as not to confuse with EW labels - which they are not.)

So, if the meaning of the term degree holds, then for those looking for a fourth wave-type structure, the likely way to do that is to pair the fourth wave up with the N location. In other words, now draw a line from the top of the N wave through the all-time-high, with a parallel from the N wave bottom. The odds are likely about 90% that this is a new wave down for two reasons:

1. If one were trying to construct the longer diagonal of sub-micro (1), with this as (2), then - as a second wave - it would be longer in price than its higher degree previous second waves. This would violate the definition of degrees. So, for that reason I think any upward diagonal already occurred as previously identified.
2. If one were trying to suggest that the first (a), (b), (c) lower - shown in the prior post were the first minute ⓐ of a triangle, then, it, too, would be larger than the higher degree P, Q or R waves. So, the only way to pair a triangle would likely be with the N wave.

And one caution about considering a triangle at this location is that usually (most-often) the ⓐ wave of a contracting triangle is the most violent. This wave has been halting & start-stopping - just about the opposite of a violent characteristic (yet). Still, I see no objective reason that an expanding triangle couldn't develop from here. But, again, this would be paired with wave N.

So, these are some items to consider going forward even though seemingly violent and substantial retracing waves can occur at any point.

Note on the daily chart both the MACD and the signal line are below the zero line with the MACD line currently crossed lower.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe