Monday, April 1, 2024

ES Local Count

See ES 1 Hr chart below. Futures were much higher overnight on the "first-of-the-month money". But none of this shows up in the cash market.


With the MACD on a peak, and cash not open, it is wise to see what cash does before drawing a conclusion.

Have a good start to the day.

TraderJoe

37 comments:

  1. Thanks TJ. All this rally is mostly tech driven. If possible can you post a long term view/chart on NVDA. I didn't find anything in archives.

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    1. @manu .. here is my long term view, but by now - if you have been reading me, and only paying attention to the way this site counts waves - you should be able to contribute to this site.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/HOgdbsqM/

      Can you take it from (4) of ③? Post your results. If not, then further questions will not be answered.

      TJ

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    2. Thanks Tj. Not a techie but can try as your student.

      The stock made a high in Nov 2021-$330(intermediate 3) and low in Oct 2022-$113(major 4) and now major 5 on the way completing Primary 3. I am unable to calculate how many times of major 1 is major 5 but major 5 is nearing to 3 times of major 3(329-32=298×3 =894 plus major 4 law of 113=$1007.

      Also, how to search your archives? This is not ew question:)

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    3. A response like this would be preferred, showing that you understand The Eight-Fold-Path Method. The Eight-Fold-Path Method is the Featured Post in the upper right-hand-corner of the main blog page.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/HAT9LtqW/

      But I am glad you answered in any event.

      TJ

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    4. Thanks Tj. You are a strict teacher and I am a lazy student 😴

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    5. Price is the sternest master. TJ.

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  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. @wiz29; this is not a place for trading or investment recommendations. You simply do not know whether such a set of actions is suitable for manu or anyone else. So Please honor the intent of this site - which is wave counting and NOT recommendations/advice. Any further such comments of this type from you will be removed. TJ.

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  3. ES 1-Hr: all key up waves have been overlapped downward. IF price does not go below the low, then an ending diagonal can be considered. We're not there yet. TJ.

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    1. Here is a chart update showing the last overlap. (Chart is behind about 10 min, as usual).

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/IlGAKhXD/

      TJ

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  4. Wondering if the potential 2 4 trend line a reliable potential target at all degrees of trend. Very tricky nailing the end of correction in my wave counting!

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    1. I could wish it were so, but triangles & diagonals break, recapture and re-break such trend lines to make life more difficult. TJ.

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    2. Tell me about it! Sure seems like triangles and diagonals now dominate the wave patterns.

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  5. I am counting a 3rd down today so it appears current correction beginning with a 5, IF we get a 4th and 5th down. We likely endure another agonizing triangle after, lol!

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  6. ES trying the same old trick on the 8hr, trying to recapture the channel.

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    1. One of these times it wont work and should get a 3 down but I am aware of the definition of insanity. :)

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  7. Unity (weekly) idea - https://imgbb.host/QzyVp

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  8. All I can say is up to this point, the 8hr only had wicks under the channel.

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  9. DJI Cash - 30 min: Just fyi - Dow cash and futures have five non-overlapping waves down. ES is not there yet.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/fFGYTUoH/

    TJ

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    1. I noticed the Russell 2000 has 5 down as well. I wonder is the SPX / DJI will fill the gap from tuesday first.

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  10. TJ, If this gold wave gets to long, any objection to a barrier triangle on the weekly?

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    1. See comments on the chart. I'm agnostic whether Primary ⑤ (purple count) or Primary Ⓑ (red count).

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/ffvQ55Yh/

      One would need to think that a Primary Ⓑ would need to top close to this area or else a very large Primary degree triangle is being built, rather than a flat. At this time there are no good down waves to count off of. So, it is difficult to be of more help than this.

      TJ

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    2. Thanks for the response. I was thinking maybe this was the cause for the smackdown at 2100 four times.

      https://imgur.com/oGz8gjo

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    3. yep, I get it, but the proportions are not very triangle-like. Usually triangle proportions are 62- 78%. TJ.

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  11. Everything including the ZB1 bond contract topped April 1st. Did the Bond bottom yesterday or today in 1 down? Just wondering.

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    1. I'm showing a daily ZB1! top back in December. I'd urge you to be ultra-cautious if you're thinking a wave 1 was made today or yesterday, given the lead-in to your comment.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/eobPa7sa/

      TJ

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  12. Thanks TJ, it could test that lower TL.

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  13. Not 100% EW related but this would seem to corroborate that we are "late cycle" and in the ending primary degree wave. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJd5FKvWQAAEBVL?format=png&name=large

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  14. SPY 30-min: technically there are still two open gaps.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/VcAfy47K/

    TJ

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    1. SPY 30-min: gap on the left has now closed. Price down to lower parallel.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/8EO9IEB8/

      TJ

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    2. SPY 30-min: today's opening gap now closed.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/grx6kFfR/

      TJ

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    3. SPY 30-min: now has the full-on outside reversal. Let's see how she closes. Be cognizant of the 18-day SMA.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/kOUar7BV/

      TJ

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    4. Dive in SPX has coincided with spike in VIX from 13.75 to 16. Maybe factoring in growing odds of wider Middle East conflict.

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    5. More likely herd realization that idle chatter about rate cuts are just that...idle...lol!

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  15. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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